The Treasury buyback was a 'wise thing to do', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 21, 2026 at 20:19  |  4:44  |  CNBC
Speakers
Tom Lee — Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
Bryn Talkington — Managing Partner, Requisite Capital Management

Summary

Tom Lee and Bryn Talkington discuss the Treasury buyback, bond yields, and upcoming market catalysts. Lee argues the buyback was a value signal and likely helps Treasury yields move lower, while Talkington expects stocks to remain rangebound ahead of Jackson Hole. Lee is bullish on Nvidia's ability to revive AI demand confidence but warns that state-level data center opposition is stalling the AI bottleneck trade.

  • Tom Lee calls the Treasury buyback a wise value signal rather than manipulation.
  • Lee assumes the buyback will work and Treasury yields should start moving lower.
  • Bryn Talkington says the Treasury is buying illiquid 20/30-year bonds, while markets signal off 10/5/2-year yields.
  • Talkington expects the stock market to be rangebound this week ahead of Jackson Hole.
  • Lee sees next week as a clearing event, with Jensen Huang likely to re-inject AI demand confidence.
  • Lee warns data center moratoriums in Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania are causing investors to pause in the AI bottleneck trade.
  • Jackson Hole and Nvidia results are the central catalysts for stocks.
Ideas
Tom Lee Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat 0:22
Treasury buyback signals value; yields lower.
The Treasury buyback was a wise signal of value, not manipulation, because the Treasury indicated it sees Treasury securities as attractive even when investor nerves are unrelated to the assets. Lee assumes the buyback will work and yields should begin to move lower, with Jackson Hole potentially quelling the risk premium built into yields.
TLT HIGH
Bryn Talkington Managing Partner, Requisite Capital Management 2:26
Stocks rangebound into Jackson Hole.
The stock market will be rangebound this week because the Jackson Hole speech on Friday is the seminal event for understanding Fed Chairman Warsh's thinking, making it a waiting/calibration week rather than a directional break.
SPY MED
Tom Lee Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat 3:14
Nvidia event re-injects AI demand confidence.
Next week is a clearing event for the AI trade: Nvidia's Jensen Huang is expected to re-inject confidence that relentless AI demand is still taking place regardless of current data center concerns, which should support Nvidia and the AI trade after it stalled.
NVDA HIGH
Tom Lee Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat 3:18
Data center opposition threatens AI bottleneck trade.
Growing political opposition and potential moratoriums on data centers in Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania are causing investors to pause in AI/data center trades. If data centers cannot be built, the entire AI bottleneck trade does not look as durable.
AI/data center bottleneck trade MED
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This CNBC video, published August 21, 2026, features Tom Lee, Bryn Talkington discussing TLT, SPY, NVDA, AI/data center bottleneck trade. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tom Lee, Bryn Talkington  · Tickers: TLT, SPY, NVDA, AI/data center bottleneck trade