ADP's Nela Richardson breaks down June's private payrolls

Summary

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson discusses June 2025 private payrolls, which came in at 98,000. The job market remains steady but not accelerating, with sector-specific drivers replacing broad macro trends. Consumer caution is emerging in leisure and hospitality, while construction faces labor supply constraints. Cumulative inflation still pressures households, and college graduates struggle to find white-collar jobs. The conversation also addresses immigration's role in labor supply and expectations for upcoming BLS data.

• ADP private payrolls rose 98,000 in June, a decent but softer gain.
• Job growth is steady, not accelerating; broad-based hiring seen in May faded.
• Leisure and hospitality demand is weakening as consumers turn cautious.
• Construction sector is constrained by labor supply and demographic headwinds.
• Cumulative inflation erodes household purchasing power despite wage growth.
• College graduates face a difficult white-collar job market compared to recent years.
• Young workers (15-24) made up 42% of June hires, typical for summer.
• The unemployment rate has stayed flat despite strong hiring, puzzling economists.