DOJ Drops Powell Probe, Iran War Impact on Credit Markets | Real Yield 4/24/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 24, 2026 at 19:27  |  44:36  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ian Lyngen — Head of US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets
Michael Best — Head of Crypto, ARK Invest
Ira Jersey — Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist
Marc Pinto — Global Head of Private Credit at Moody's

Summary

The episode covers the DOJ dropping its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a path for Kevin Warsh to become Fed Chair, and the impact on Treasury yields. The Iran war's effect on inflation expectations and credit markets is discussed, alongside macro views on the yield curve and key 10-year yield levels. Private credit faces inflows decline and software exposure risks, while the high-yield market is seen as strong but requires careful credit selection. Wealth tax proposals are also examined.

  • DOJ ends Powell probe, boosting odds of Kevin Warsh confirmation as Fed Chair.
  • 10-year yield stabilizes around 4.30% with limited volatility; 4.25% seen as key level.
  • Iran war raises inflation expectations; oil price drop could lower front-end yields.
  • Private credit BDC inflows plunge 59% year-over-year; software exposure watched.
  • Moody's rates private credit asset quality as stable for now, with low troubled borrower ratios.
  • High-yield spreads are tight but credit quality remains strong; carry is attractive with selectivity.
  • Private credit spreads have widened 50 bps; managers see opportunity in refinancing wall.
  • Wealth tax proposals in states like California and Minnesota could affect state tax bases.
Trade Ideas
Ian Lyngen Head of US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets 8:36
Buy long-dated bonds above 4.25% yield.
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25% is a critical level derived from a combination of lower growth expectations and term premium, and Vanguard has been adding exposure to longer-dated bonds above that level. As the market may find interest at even lower yields over time, buying long-dated bonds when the 10-year yield is above 4.25% is a favorable trade.
Treasury bonds (long duration) MED
Michael Best Head of Crypto, ARK Invest 31:17
High-yield bonds offer attractive carry.
The high-yield credit market is fundamentally strong with solid credit quality, and despite tight spreads, the market offers attractive carry. Investors should focus on earning carry while being selective and avoiding sloppy credits, but overall the asset class is constructive.
HYG MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 24, 2026, features Ian Lyngen, Michael Best discussing Treasury bonds (long duration), HYG. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ian Lyngen, Michael Best  · Tickers: Treasury bonds (long duration), HYG