CXMT's Rise, HBM Ambitions & the Undersupplied Memory Market | Ray Wang (SemiAnalysis) x TEMA

Summary

Ray Wang (SemiAnalysis) and Yuri Khodjamirian (Tema ETFs) discuss CXMT’s rise as a top-four DRAM player, its technology gap in HBM, aggressive capacity expansion, and the broader memory market outlook. They argue that strong domestic Chinese demand and HBM conversion will absorb new supply, keeping the memory market undersupplied into 2030. The conversation challenges bearish narratives on CXMT’s pricing and highlights ASML’s critical role, while framing the recent memory stock selloff as a technical overhang against robust fundamentals.

• CXMT has grown rapidly to become the fourth-largest DRAM supplier, leveraging domestic talent, strategic acquisitions, and Chinese government support.
• In conventional DRAM CXMT is competitive in consumer/LPDDR, but server DRAM qualification is still developing, and HBM technology lags the leading players.
• CXMT plans to reach more than 800k wafer starts per month by 2030, yet much of this capacity will be allocated to HBM, preventing the oversupply that headline capacity numbers suggest.
• Memory supply/demand modeling shows the market undersupplied into 2028-2030, with HBM complexity and strong Chinese CSP capex keeping the environment tight.
• ASML’s DUV lithography tools remain the most critical bottleneck for Chinese memory expansion, and ASML has revised up its China revenue outlook significantly.
• Chinese hyperscalers are signing multi-year LTAs with CXMT, prioritising memory security and driving a situation where CXMT can command pricing power, not act as a cheap supplier.
• Memory stocks recently came under pressure from crowded positioning and margin calls, but the fundamental case for memory remains intact, offering a potential long-term opportunity.