Name: How To Trade The SpaceX IPO - GoodAlexander
Uploaded: 2026-06-11T01:22:07+00:00
Duration: 4220 s

Speakers

Alexander Good — Author, Good Alexander (Substack)

Summary

Good Alexander discusses trading strategies around the upcoming SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs. He advocates shorting telecom stocks due to the SpaceX liquidity vacuum, being long SoftBank for AI IPO exposure, and favoring OpenAI over Anthropic for its underappreciated advertising potential. He also warns on Palantir's competitive risk, Google's fading AI position, and the poor record of longevity biotech investments.

SpaceX IPO will drain liquidity from speculative assets, especially telecoms.
Actively short telecom stocks and ETF; they've rallied excessively and face existential threat from SpaceX.
SoftBank is a leveraged play on AI IPOs via its stakes in ARM and OpenAI.
OpenAI's 900M users and advertising monetization potential make it the preferred AI IPO.
Anthropic's excellent model may disrupt Palantir's ontology moat and its partnership with Goldman Sachs is a threat.
Google is a consensus fade due to weak Gemini model and upcoming large equity raise.
Avoid longevity biotech stocks and ARKG because the market is rigged by ultra-rich insiders.

Ideas

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 7:09

SpaceX IPO drains liquidity from telecoms.

The SpaceX IPO will suck $25 billion of retail liquidity from speculative assets, particularly telecom stocks that have rallied >100% on no fundamental improvement. SpaceX's sun narrative and potential space-based data centers threaten legacy telecoms, and management teams are shareholder-destructive. He is actively short every telecom stock as a near-term trade.

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 12:49

Long SoftBank for AI IPO exposure.

SoftBank Group has a stealth telecom business and major stakes in ARM and OpenAI, positioning it as a leveraged play on the upcoming AI IPO boom. He is long SoftBank for this exposure, which the market may be underappreciating.

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 22:43

OpenAI's advertising potential is underappreciated.

OpenAI's massive 900M DAU user base is undervalued; early advertising pilots were highly successful, suggesting a path to monetization similar to Amazon's retail advertising surprise. The market is wrong to focus on cash burn and consensus that Anthropic is the winner. He is most optimistic on OpenAI among the AI IPOs.

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 42:10

Avoid biotech due to insider market.

Longevity and biotech public market investments have historically underperformed because the best private companies get acquired by ultra-high-net-worth individuals at any price, leaving public investors with adverse selection. He explicitly stays away from ARKG and biotech stocks.

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 51:57

Palantir threatened by Anthropic ontology disruption.

Anthropic's advanced models and partnership with Goldman Sachs threaten Palantir's core ontology value proposition. If large language models can work without ontologies, Palantir's moat erodes. Additionally, Palantir's status as a Trump beta stock could suffer if the administration's legitimacy wanes. This is a key risk to monitor.

Alexander Good Author, Good Alexander (Substack) 69:04

Google is consensus fade due to Gemini.

Despite being a consensus long, Alphabet is underperforming because its AI model Gemini is inferior for coding and user experience. The market neglect and upcoming $80B equity raise make it a fade. Avoid Google.

How To Trade The SpaceX IPO - GoodAlexander

Summary

Ideas

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