Bet on 'interest rates will continue to rise'? Why blue-chip companies are increasingly at an advantage | Hong Seon-ae, Kim Han-jin, 3PRO TV Economists

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin discusses Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shareholder-return plans and argues they mark a multi-year Korea discount reduction. He expects U.S. long-term interest rates to keep rising structurally due to deficits and term premium, but believes near-term 10-year yields can stay rangebound. He also argues gradual rate rises favor blue-chip stocks, AI and semiconductor capex remains intact, and S&P 500 earnings revisions support equities.

• Samsung's 110 trillion won shareholder-return plan disappointed near term but its three-year 600 trillion won cash-flow return is seen supporting the stock from next year.
• SK hynix's 24 million share buyback-and-cancel is the market's preferred method and is expected to continue.
• Top-two Korean semis' large shareholder returns should help reduce the Korea discount and support KOSPI.
• U.S. long-end yields are seen in a structural uptrend, with the 10-year fair value near 5.2% and 30-year risk toward 5.5-6%.
• Near term, the U.S. 10-year yield may stay in a 4.6-4.8% range due to softer sentiment and Treasury operations.
• AI and semiconductor supply shortages and hyperscaler margins support continued capex through 2028.
• S&P 500 earnings revisions and reasonable valuations support equities despite macro noise.