Bitcoin Just Flashed The Same Signals As The 2022 Crash w/ Julio Moreno

Summary

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, argues that Bitcoin's recent rally from $60K to $82K is a bear market rally, not a new bull market. He points to resistance at the 200-day moving average, high unrealized profits, active profit-taking, fading US demand, and speculative-driven momentum as warning signs. He expects a correction toward on-chain realized price support near $70K.

• Bitcoin rejected at the 200-day moving average, a key bear market resistance.
• Unrealized profit margins are at levels similar to the 2022 bear market.
• Traders have realized significant profits (over 14,000 BTC in one day).
• Coinbase premium turned negative, indicating declining US demand at higher prices.
• The rally is driven primarily by speculative (perpetual futures) demand, not spot demand.
• On-chain trader realized price suggests first support around $70K.
• Julio advises caution and warns against assuming a new bull market has begun.