After Volatility Passes... How Can We Determine the Market's Lows and Highs? | Baek Chan-gyu, Yeo Do-eun, Heo Jae-mu [Morning N Investment]

Summary

Baek Chan-gyu, Center Director at NS Securities, examines the post-volatility market outlook by analyzing three key factors: economy/earnings for lows, interest rates/liquidity for highs, and growth industries for direction. He advocates increasing US equity exposure as US earnings momentum and mid-term election politics raise the market floor, while Korea's recovery is slower due to rate headwinds. He recommends accumulating Korean AI infrastructure (semiconductors, equipment, power) on dips, trading future-value sectors via ETFs, and stabilizing portfolios with US dividend ETFs. He also details a crash-response plan to compress holdings into large-cap earnings stocks.

• US market floor rising on conservative earnings beats and mid-term election pressure; increase US allocation.
• Korean market low rising but recovery pace slower due to interest rate and volume headwinds.
• Accumulate AI infrastructure sectors—semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, power equipment—into October earnings.
• Samsung Electronics may announce stronger shareholder return policy, acting as a near-term catalyst.
• Future value sectors (robotics, aerospace/defense, nuclear, batteries) can spike when rates stabilize; use ETFs.
• Avoid long-term holdings in Korean domestic/financial sectors; only short-term trading on earnings pops.
• Construction sector can be held longer on expected order momentum.
• In a 40% market crash, compress into large-cap earnings stocks for faster recovery and stability.