Laura Ullrich of Indeed sees soft hiring, selective demand in key sectors

Summary

Laura Ullrich, Indeed's Director of Economic Research, expects another soft jobs report and describes a stagnant, low-hire/low-fire labor market. She says unemployment at 4.5% remains historically low but is rising for some demographic groups, while GDP strength and labor softness may not persist together. Hiring is selective, with continued strength in healthcare and in AI, cloud, and cybersecurity roles despite broad tech cooling. She says manufacturing and industrial hiring are uncertain because of economic and policy uncertainty, and a Supreme Court tariff ruling could affect hiring depending on the response.

• Laura Ullrich expects a mediocre, soft-ish jobs report near consensus.
• She describes a stagnant low-hire/low-fire labor market that cannot persist indefinitely.
• Unemployment at 4.5% is historically low but higher than recent years, with micro pressure on some groups.
• Hiring strength remains in hard-to-replace roles, especially healthcare and engineering.
• Broad tech hiring has cooled, but AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity roles remain strong.
• Manufacturing, industrials, and trades hiring outlook is unclear due economic and AI-related uncertainty.
• A Supreme Court tariff ruling could affect hiring depending on the ruling and administration response.