Expectations Revive: Look at Cosmetics Shortage | Kim Moon-jung, Hana Securities Beomeo-dong Branch PB

Summary

Kim Moon-jung, a Hana Securities PB, argues that the K-beauty export upcycle is continuing and broadening into Europe, the Middle East, and offline retail. She highlights Korean Kolmar, Cosmax, and especially Genic as key beneficiaries of strong ODM demand and hydrogel mask shortages. She treats APR's counterfeit-report selloff as likely overblown but still a watch item, and views VT as a fading brand. Macro attention remains on rates and US employment data.

• August Korean exports were strong, led by semiconductors; cosmetics exports grew 29% year-over-year.
• The guest expects cosmetics export growth to continue, with 2026 potentially up about 33%.
• K-beauty growth is broadening from US/online channels to Europe, the Middle East, and offline retail such as Olive Young.
• Korean ODM leaders Korean Kolmar and Cosmax have full production schedules and strong results.
• Hydrogel mask production has high entry barriers, tight capacity, and sold-out products; Genic is her top pick.
• APR faces an unresolved counterfeit-product report that is likely overblown but worth monitoring.
• VT's Reeds Shot brand momentum has faded as market leadership shifts to the US and Europe.
• The market remains sensitive to rates and US employment data.