[Chesley Morning Brief] Dow Rises 1.14% to 'All-Time High'...Semiconductors Plummet Amid AI Bubble Theory [26/07/03]

Watch on YouTube ↗ | July 03, 2026 at 00:22 | 1:41:34 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Speakers

Wang Bujang — China Market Analyst

Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Choi Ho — Vice President

Yu Ri-pro — Analyst

Summary

The July 3, 2025 Chesley Morning Brief covers global market weakness triggered by Meta's AI capex profitability concerns. China's Wang Bu-jang highlights a battery copper foil leader with strong earnings. Yu Ri-pro explains the US rotation out of semiconductors into healthcare, financials, and cybersecurity, and notes Bitcoin's 200-day bounce. Park Se-ik views the 11.4% Philly Semi drop as a normal bull-market correction and expects a technical rebound. Choi Ho presents bullish theses on Amorepacific and Samyang Foods, both trading at historically low valuations despite solid earnings growth, while crypto regulation and defense stocks get brief mentions.

Meta's cloud computing sale plan sparks AI capex return debate, causing Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to plummet 5% on top of prior fall
US market sees sharp rotation: healthcare, financials, and cybersecurity hit new highs while semis and megacaps sell off
China's largest battery copper foil producer benefits from tight supply and EV/AI demand, trading at 12x forward earnings
Park Se-ik sees Philly Semi's 11.4% two-day drop as typical of bull-market corrections and expects a bounce
Choi Ho advocates for Amorepacific at 17x forward P/E with improving domestic/overseas sales and COSRX growth in Europe
Samyang Foods at 13x P/E despite 34% OP growth, driven by strong exports and ramen demand, a crowded-out consumer play
Bitcoin tests 200-day MA around $62,000 and gets a bid from softer labor data, though ETF outflows persist
Cybersecurity names CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks hit 52-week highs, benefiting from AI-driven security needs

Ideas

Wang Bujang China Market Analyst 4:57

China copper foil leader, cheap on 12x forward

China's largest battery copper foil producer, holding 30% global market share, is benefiting from strong demand for EV battery and PCB copper foil. Q1 earnings surged (sales +80% YoY, net profit turnaround) with gross margin 11.7%, net margin 1.58%. Key catalysts: rising share of high-margin ultra-thin foil for Micron and AI-related PCB, and tight industry capacity with limited new supply due to losses; utilization already 93% and forecast to reach 97% next year. The company's 150,000-ton foil capacity is ramping and consensus sees 2024 net profit of 2.12bn RMB, 2025 21.2bn, with trailing P/E 38x, forward P/E 16x/12x. Applying 20x P/E (lower than typical CCL multiples due to competitive landscape) yields a target price implying 30% upside. Valuation attractive on depressed 12x forward P/E despite structural demand growth.

Yu Ri-pro Analyst 14:27

Cybersecurity thrives on AI security demand

Cybersecurity stocks are hitting new 52-week highs amid the AI LLM boom, as security becomes a critical issue for large language models. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks continue to be beneficiaries of this trend, standing out even during broader tech weakness. The thesis is that AI adoption increases attack surfaces and compliance needs, driving sustained demand for security solutions.

Yu Ri-pro Analyst 23:58

Bitcoin bounces off 200-day MA, macro tailwind

Bitcoin found support at the 200-day moving average around $62,000, a historically important technical floor. There was a brief bounce. The soft ADP employment report reduced expectations of further rate hikes, causing short-term rates to fall and the dollar index to drop, which is supportive for crypto. On-chain data show liquidity still thin, but extreme fear in sentiment often precedes rebounds. While ETF outflows continue, the combination of macro relief and technical support presents a setup for a potential short-term rally, though upside may be limited by overall thin liquidity and regulatory uncertainty (MiCA).

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 42:26

Philly Semi due for bounce after 11.4% drop

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 11.4% in two days, similar to previous selloffs in March (10% drop from yen carry trade), May (6% drop from rates/oil), June (12% drop from SpaceX listing, etc.), and mid-June (1.9% on valuation). Historically, such sharp short-term drops in high-beta Philly Semi have been followed by rebounds. Fundamentals remain intact, with AI memory shortages persisting. The recent fall is more about positioning and sector rotation (Meta capex return debate, profit-taking) rather than end of AI cycle. Expect a technical bounce.

Choi Ho Vice President 66:40

Amorepacific at historical low 17x P/E, re-rating ahead

Amorepacific (090430.KS) is trading at historical low valuations (12-month forward P/E 17x) while EPS estimates turn up, marking a valuation floor. Q2 earnings to meet consensus: sales 1.1tn KRW, operating profit 100bn (+33% YoY). Domestic growth driven by e-commerce/MBS channels, duty-free recovery, inbound tourism. Overseas revenue +51% YoY with strong US momentum (Amazon Prime Day hero SKU performance +73% lip product sales, etc.) and Europe 50% growth in COSRX. Profitability improving YoY despite one-off costs. Industry trend favors companies that adapt to online channels and marketing; Amorepacific has reshaped distribution (Olive Young, duty-free, Amazon) away from China offline, reducing risk of previous earnings disappointments. Valuation re-rating potential to 20x+ historical average.

Choi Ho Vice President 80:33

Samyang Foods at 13x P/E, 30% EPS growth

Samyang Foods (003230.KS) is attractive on valuation (12-month forward P/E 13x) despite 30%+ earnings growth. Q2 EPS to meet consensus: sales 720bn KRW, OP 177bn (OPM 25%). Exports +40% YoY, US/China robust, domestic helped by 'Uzira' ramen. Currency tailwind supports margins. While H2 base effect and concerns over marketing costs exist, medium-term growth from China factory ramp-up and global expansion provide re-rating catalyst. Global peer valuation floor 15x suggests upside. Current 13x P/E is excessively cheap for a consumer food stock with 30%+ earnings growth, largely due to semicon crowding out.

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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published July 03, 2026, features Wang Bujang, Yu Ri-pro, Park Se-ik, Choi Ho discussing China battery copper foil leader (likely Nuode New Materials), CRWD, PANW, BTC, ETF, 090430.KS, 003230.KS. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Wang Bujang, Yu Ri-pro, Park Se-ik, Choi Ho · Tickers: China battery copper foil leader (likely Nuode New Materials), CRWD, PANW, BTC, ETF, 090430.KS, 003230.KS