No Housing Shortage 8/5/26

Summary

Ivy Zelman argues that the US has no housing shortage, with the market currently balanced. Slowing population growth from low immigration, low birth rates, and an aging population means household formation will weaken, reducing the need for new supply. If homebuilders maintain the current pace of starts, the housing market could face oversupply in the next decade. She notes that many spec homes and apartments are already sitting empty, quieting talk of a shortage.

• Zelman sees the US housing market as balanced, not undersupplied.
• Demographic headwinds—low immigration, sub-replacement birth rates, aging—point to weaker household growth.
• Lower household growth implies less need for new housing supply.
• Current builder start rates risk creating an oversupply in the coming decade.
• Elevated inventory of unsold spec homes and empty apartments already signals softening.
• The long-standing narrative of a housing shortage has quieted as these trends unfold.