What to Expect From the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing

Summary

Henrietta Treyz previews the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, expecting low results with a focus on agriculture, especially soybeans, due to political pressure from midterm elections. She notes the absence of Jensen Huang from the US delegation underscores the agriculture-first agenda. She also discusses the inflationary CPI print and the Republican shift toward supporting a gas tax holiday.

• Summit expectations are low; focus on soybeans and agricultural deals.
• Farmer bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025, driving political urgency.
• Previous soybean deals (Phase One) involved larger volumes than recent one.
• Chips and critical minerals are secondary; prior agreements to be reaffirmed.
• CPI came in at 3.8%, up from 3.3%, adding to midterm election pressure.
• Republican senators are considering a gas tax holiday, reversing past opposition.
• Structural issues like Strait of Hormuz closure limit the impact of a gas tax holiday.
• Kevin Warsh's ascension to Fed chair is expected without disruption, but rate cuts are unlikely given inflation.