POR QUE JUROS ALTOS PODEM CRIAR OPORTUNIDADE NA RENDA FIXA

Summary

The INCO CEO and CMO discuss how Brazil's elevated SELIC rate and lingering fear from the Master case are reshaping private credit. They argue that high rates currently force discipline, leaving only robust projects that generate attractive CDI+5 to CDI+10 spreads, while many investors miss the opportunity by sticking only to FGC-protected deposits. Operational risks like defaults and cybersecurity are also addressed, but the core message is that selective private credit now offers a compelling yield advantage for those willing to accept controlled non-FGC risk.

• Brazilian SELIC remains around 14% and is expected to stay elevated, pressuring companies and causing record judicial recoveries.
• INCO sees a 'moment of opportunity' in alternative private credit, where only high-margin projects can absorb CDI+5 or +6 funding costs.
• Real estate sales in São Paulo are described as very slow, forcing stricter origination filters and higher pre-sale requirements.
• Investor fear from the Master case has driven many to limit themselves to FGC-covered instruments, leaving higher-yielding private credit largely overlooked.
• INCO's platform continues to attract around 10,000 new accounts per month despite the high-rate environment.
• Cybersecurity is now the firm's top concern, as AI tools empower attackers and financial institutions face growing digital threats.
• The behavioral gap between spot SELIC and future CDI curve can cause investors to misprice private credit at different points in the rate cycle.