KOSDAQ: After One Round of Rotation, Rather Than New Buys, Move Some to Semiconductors

Summary

Jang Woo-jin sees the Korean market as having completed one broad rotation and cautions against aggressive new buying, especially in KOSDAQ, due overbought ADR and fragile liquidity. He favors reducing some KOSDAQ exposure and shifting partially into semiconductors, backed by SK Hynix/Samsung shareholder return expectations and easing AI capex fears. He also highlights Korean AI data center names, NAVER's long-term optionality, and buying cosmetics on dips. He remains wary of US hyperscaler capex burdens, front-end AI funding, and high rates/oil.

• KOSPI/KOSDAQ rebounded and rotation has broadly run; ADR is overbought and new aggressive buying is not favored.
• Liquidity remains tight with high US rates, high oil, Treasury TGA builds, and bitcoin stuck near $65,000.
• Korean large-cap semiconductors are supported by shareholder return expectations and easing AI capex anxiety.
• US neocloud earnings, especially Nebius, showed strong prepayment funding and margins, but hyperscalers lagged.
• Korean AI data center-related names such as SK Telecom, NAVER, NHN, SGC Energy, and GS are viewed as long-term beneficiaries.
• Strategy highlights reducing KOSDAQ exposure, shifting partial exposure to semiconductors, and buying cosmetics on dips.
• Key risks include AI front-end funding stress, GPU ABS financing, KOSPI's 35-day moving average, war, and oil prices.