Stocks Steady After Strong Jobs Data Dims Rate-Cut Bets | The Close 2/11/2026
Speakers
Ed Yardeni — President, Yardeni Research
— Yardeni Research president
Phong Le — CEO, MicroStrategy
— MicroStrategy CEO
Summary
- The "Year of the Galloping Horse" (2026) is defined by a stimulus-fed economy; tax refunds are averaging $4,000 (up $300 YoY), providing a consumer cushion despite a slowing labor market (15k jobs/month avg).
- A new thematic trade is emerging: "Scrambling for AI Immunity." Investors are rotating out of pure AI hype and into assets perceived as safe from AI disruption (Gold, Bonds) or oversold software stocks that were unfairly punished.
- The "GLP-1 Trade" is bifurcating. Novo Nordisk is aggressively litigating against compounding pharmacies to protect IP, while analysts see a massive valuation disconnect between NVO and Eli Lilly.
- Geopolitics is shifting energy markets; the US Energy Secretary's visit to Venezuela signals a potential reopening for major oil players like Chevron to revitalize infrastructure.
Trade Ideas
McDonald's beat Q4 comps (5.7%) driven by promotions, but Q1 is facing weather headwinds and operating margin guidance (mid-to-high 40s) was merely maintained, not raised. The "beat" was largely driven by one-off promotions (Grimace/Pokemon) rather than structural traffic improvements. With no margin expansion expected, the upside is capped. NEUTRAL. The easy money from the "value menu" trade has been made; execution risk remains for 2026. Consumer spending collapses faster than expected; value menu dilutes margins further.
Holz highlights that NVO shares are back at 2024 lows while LLY has outperformed, despite both having similar duopoly status in the obesity market. The valuation gap has become "alarming." NVO's new pill (Wegovy oral) has 15x better uptake than the injection launch, and they are aggressively suing compounders (HIMS) to protect their moat. LONG NVO / SHORT LLY. Expect mean reversion as NVO resolves supply issues and flexes legal power. LLY's oral candidate could outperform; compounding pharmacies might win legal battles.
Yardeni observes that despite the stock market rising, bond yields are holding steady (around 4.2%) and Gold is moving higher toward $3,000+. Investors are taking profits from the tech/AI run-up and "rebalancing" into defensive assets (Gold and Bonds) to find "AI Immunity." LONG. The "Galloping Horse" economy (stimulus + rate cuts) combined with a desire for non-AI correlated assets favors hard assets and sovereign debt. A resurgence in inflation could hurt nominal bond returns; Gold is technically overbought in the short term.
The US Energy Secretary is in Venezuela meeting with officials; Chevron has maintained a presence there for 100 years and is the primary operator with licenses. The US administration is pushing to revive Venezuela's oil sector. Chevron is the only US major with the "boots on the ground" and existing infrastructure to immediately benefit from relaxed sanctions or expanded licenses. LONG. CVX is the direct beneficiary of US-Venezuela diplomatic thawing. Political volatility in Venezuela; expropriation risk remains non-zero.
Novo Nordisk has filed lawsuits against Hims & Hers (and others) for patent infringement regarding compounded GLP-1s. If NVO successfully blocks the sale of compounded semaglutide, HIMS loses a massive, high-margin revenue stream that has driven its recent growth. SHORT. Regulatory and legal headwinds are mounting against the "mass compounding" business model. Lawsuits could drag on for years; FDA could maintain shortage list status allowing compounding to continue.
Dan Suzuki
Investment Strategist, Schroders
Suzuki notes a "wholesale selloff" in the software space due to fears that AI will replace legacy SaaS models. The market is "throwing the baby out with the bathwater." Many software companies are partnering with AI firms rather than being displaced. Valuations have compressed significantly compared to the "Mag-7." LONG. This is a contrarian value play within tech. Structural disruption from AI agents could actually render some "seat-based" SaaS models obsolete.
Dan Suzuki
Investment Strategist, Schroders
The US Dollar is expensive relative to history, and US market concentration is at record highs. If the US Dollar mean reverts (weakens) due to lower interest rates or debt concerns, international assets (which are cheaper) will outperform US equities. LONG. A diversification play to capture valuation spreads and currency tailwinds. The US economy continues to exceptionalize, keeping the Dollar strong.
Sohail Prasad
CEO, Destiny Tech100
2026 is expected to be a "banner year" for IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic mentioned as targets). Most retail investors cannot access these companies pre-IPO. DXYZ holds them directly. As IPO hype builds, the premium on this closed-end fund could expand, or the NAV will rise as private valuations mark up to public liquidity. LONG. A proxy play for the "Private Tech" super-cycle. The fund often trades at a massive premium to NAV; liquidity mismatch in underlying assets.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 11, 2026, features Nick Setyan, Jared Holz, Ed Yardeni, Annmarie Hordern, Mike Doukeris, Dan Suzuki, Sohail Prasad discussing MCD, NVO, TLT, GOLD, CVX, HIMS, IGV, VXUS, EFA, DXYZ. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Nick Setyan, Jared Holz, Ed Yardeni, Annmarie Hordern, Mike Doukeris, Dan Suzuki, Sohail Prasad · Tickers: MCD, NVO, TLT, GOLD, CVX, HIMS, IGV, VXUS, EFA, DXYZ