It will take 4 months for Hormuz flows to recover to 80% of prewar levels, says RBC's Helima Croft

Summary

Helima Croft discusses her conversation with UAE energy minister Sultan Al-Jaber, who stated that even if the war ends immediately, it will take four months for Strait of Hormuz oil flows to recover to 80% of pre-war levels. She raises the possibility of Iran establishing a permanent toll system on ships transiting the waterway. The UAE is racing to complete a second Hormuz bypass pipeline by 2027, but no near-term relief is available.

• Sultan Al-Jaber says Hormuz flows will take 4 months to reach 80% of pre-war levels even if war ends now.
• Helima Croft suggests Iran may be using the conflict to establish a toll system on ships.
• The UAE's second Hormuz bypass pipeline is 50% complete and expected operational by 2027.
• Current ship traffic through the Strait is around 20 ships per day versus 100 normally.
• Oil markets remain volatile and sensitive to headlines, with prices below $100 despite disruption.
• No near-term bypass alternatives exist for the coming peak demand season.