Here's what to watch for in Intel's earnings results

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 22, 2026 at 21:15  |  3:43  |  CNBC
Speakers
Stacy Rasgon — Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research

Summary

Bernstein senior analyst Stacy Rasgon previews Intel's earnings, outlining both the bull case—strong server demand, new products, foundry interest, and government support—and the bear case—share loss, PC demand risk, foundry challenges, cash burn, and a stock that has already run sharply. He says he has not made a bull call on Intel and believes the stock would be lower without government support. The conversation then turns to the broader chip sector, where he sees a divergence between surging semi cap/memory names and more stagnant NVIDIA/Broadcom, while saying he likes semi cap and NVIDIA.

  • Stacy Rasgon discusses Intel ahead of earnings and recently raised his price target slightly to $36.
  • Intel's bull case includes server demand, new 18/Panther Lake products, foundry interest, and Trump administration support.
  • Intel's bear case includes server share loss, PC demand risk from memory prices, foundry execution, cash burn, and valuation.
  • Rasgon says Intel would be lower without government support and he has not made the bull call.
  • He sees a chip-sector divergence: semi cap and memory have run sharply while NVIDIA and Broadcom have been more stagnant.
  • Rasgon explicitly likes semiconductor capital equipment and NVIDIA, expecting NVIDIA to catch up as numbers and narrative improve.
Ideas
Stacy Rasgon Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research 0:27
Intel risk/reward unattractive despite government support
Intel faces fundamental challenges despite some near-term positives. Server demand is strong and new 18/Panther Lake products plus foundry interest and Trump administration support create bull-case elements, but Intel is losing server share, PC demand could weaken on higher memory prices, foundry remains a long slog, capex and cash burn persist, and the stock has gone vertical and already prices in a lot of success. He has not been able to make the bull call and thinks the stock would be lower without government support, though he would not talk someone out of trading the momentum.
INTC HIGH
Stacy Rasgon Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research 3:32
Likes semiconductor capital equipment on AI buildout
Semiconductor capital equipment has run hard because it supplies the AI buildout, while NVIDIA and Broadcom have been more stagnant. He sees a divergence that must normalize and explicitly says he likes semi cap, implying continued support from AI infrastructure spending.
SOXX HIGH
Stacy Rasgon Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research 3:35
NVIDIA likely catches up on AI numbers
NVIDIA has lagged while memory and semi cap names have run, creating a divergence he expects to normalize. He explicitly likes NVIDIA and sees catch-up potential as numbers and the narrative improve, since NVIDIA is a primary beneficiary of the AI buildout.
NVDA HIGH
Up Next
24:28
Chris Casey: What 2026 Has in Store for Markets—Debt, QE & a Reckoning
Wealthion · Jan 22
3:58
Earnings melt up in stock market will bring equities higher, says Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni
CNBC · Jan 22
45:14
Além do barril de petróleo, a oportunidade é histórica
Fernando Ulrich · Jan 22
17:09
Cathie Wood's 'Big Ideas' for 2026: Tech, Tesla and Deregulation
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 22
8:33
EU's Kallas Says Greenlanders Want to Stay With Denmark
Bloomberg Markets · Jan 22

This CNBC video, published January 22, 2026, features Stacy Rasgon discussing INTC, SOXX, NVDA. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stacy Rasgon  · Tickers: INTC, SOXX, NVDA