Why Carson Group's Ryan Detrick sees more upside for the S&P 500
Speakers
Ryan Detrick
— Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group
Summary
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, sees more upside for the S&P 500, citing technical support above the June peak, strong breadth, and no historical June peak. He favors an overweight in equities over bonds and in technology, financials, industrials, and health care. He also describes a growth/value barbell and flags a possible post-Jackson Hole gold setup.
- S&P 500 already up about 12% this year; Carson Group projects up to 18% upside.
- Technical view: staying above the June 2 S&P 500 peak keeps the market constructive.
- Overweight technology, financials, industrials, and health care on economic turn and strong earnings.
- Inflationary growth environment supports overweight equities and underweight bonds.
- Carson uses roughly 53% growth and 47% value barbell allocation.
- Expects possible August-September midterm-year volatility but remains optimistic.
- Gold may be set for a repeat post-Jackson Hole rally.
Ideas
S&P 500 can rise 18%.
Carson Group projects the S&P 500 can finish the year up as much as 18%, supported by strong market breadth, the fact that no year in history has ever peaked in June, and optimism that early midterm-year volatility already occurred.
Overweight tech, financials, industrials, health care.
He favors technology, financials, industrials, and health care because the economy is turning the corner, regional surveys and earnings have been strong, and leadership can rotate, with health care already showing momentum last week.
Overweight equities, underweight bonds.
In an inflationary growth environment where inflation is a little hot, yields could be higher, and the Fed is running it hot, Carson still favors overweight equities and underweight bonds.
Own growth and value barbell.
Carson uses a barbell approach with roughly 53% growth and 47% value because leadership may rotate, many areas could take the baton, and investors do not need to be all in one style.
Gold may repeat post-Jackson Hole rally.
Last year the Fed's Jackson Hole message that it would run the economy hot helped gold rally strongly, and he is looking for a possible repeat gold setup.
