Iran War: US Stocks Bounce as Traders Track If Truce Hold | The Opening Trade 5/5/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 05, 2026 at 09:34  |  1:35:30  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Oliver Crook — Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode covers the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with fresh hostilities causing oil prices to remain elevated near $113 and the US 30-year yield crossing 5%. European earnings season shows mixed results for banks and defense companies, while trade tensions between the US and EU escalate. Guests discuss safe-haven dollar positioning, gilt market opportunities, and the resilience of US equities versus Europe, as well as private credit risks and AI infrastructure spending.

  • Fighting resumed in the Strait of Hormuz, testing the four-week ceasefire and keeping oil prices high.
  • US 30-year bond yield hit 5%, raising concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability.
  • HSBC reported a profit miss due to a fraud charge and macro provisions; UniCredit delivered a record profit.
  • The French trade minister warned of EU retaliation if US auto tariffs rise to 25%.
  • JPMorgan Private Bank favored UK 5-year gilts and suggested US equities are more resilient than Europe.
  • Goldman Sachs flagged supply risks in naphtha, jet fuel, and LPG products.
  • Private credit sector faces redemption pressure but Moody's sees structural growth.
  • President Trump predicted oil prices will fall substantially after the conflict ends.
Trade Ideas
Stuart Bennett 17:00
Dollar safe haven amid uncertainty
The dollar remains the primary safe haven amid Middle East uncertainty, and the risks are skewed against being too short the dollar. Underlying uncertainty supports dollar strength even as rate correlations have broken down.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) MED
Stuart Bennett 18:28
ECB hikes negative for euro
ECB rate hikes are not supportive for the euro because the market will focus on the downside risks to eurozone growth from high energy prices and trade threats, making the euro vulnerable.
EUR/USD MED
Stuart Bennett 20:40
Pound vulnerable to political risk
Political uncertainty in the UK, particularly around elections, could weaken the pound. Cable is higher and speculative shorts are less crowded than before, so there is more room for downside.
GBP/USD MED
Stuart Bennett 22:30
Yen weakens, USD/JPY higher
The yen requires rate hikes to stabilize. Intervention tends to be ineffective, and with the dollar likely to strengthen, USD/JPY is biased higher.
USD/JPY MED
Madison Faller 55:36
US more resilient than Europe
The US economy is more resilient to high oil prices than Europe because it is less energy-intensive. Therefore, US equities should outperform European equities in an environment of elevated energy costs and trade tensions.
SPY MED
Madison Faller 55:36
US more resilient than Europe
The US economy is more resilient to high oil prices than Europe because it is less energy-intensive. Therefore, US equities should outperform European equities in an environment of elevated energy costs and trade tensions.
Euro Stoxx 50 MED
Madison Faller 56:41
Gilt yields to fall, buy 5-year
Gilt yields are likely to fall over the next 12 months because the Bank of England will have to consider downside growth risks despite sticky inflation. The market is overpricing rate hikes, so investors should focus on the 5-year part of the UK gilt curve.
UK Gilt Futures (5-year) HIGH
Donald Trump President of the United States 87:53
Oil prices to drop after conflict
Oil prices will decline substantially and rapidly once the Middle East conflict ends, as the supply situation normalizes and the current elevated levels are unsustainable.
BNO MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 05, 2026, features Stuart Bennett, Madison Faller, Donald Trump discussing U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SPY, Euro Stoxx 50, UK Gilt Futures (5-year), BNO. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stuart Bennett, Madison Faller, Donald Trump  · Tickers: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SPY, Euro Stoxx 50, UK Gilt Futures (5-year), BNO