Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
9 eval.
+0.4%
L +0.4%
S -
Win rate
67%
30 days
9 eval.
-3.5%
L -3.5%
S -
Win rate
44%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
NatSec
$119.85
-
Oliver Crook reports that European defense stocks are surging (BAE Systems +6%, Hensoldt +5%, Rheinmetall +2%). He quotes Hensoldt stating there will be a "structural bid for this sector" specifically for air defense and radars. Vonnie Quinn adds that "Contractors, defense companies, drone companies, the likes of Palantir" are moving higher. The conflict involves heavy use of missiles and drones (Iran targeting Gulf states, US targeting Iran). This confirms a long-term capital expenditure cycle for air defense systems (radars, interceptors) across Europe and the Middle East, regardless of how quickly this specific conflict ends. LONG. The "structural bid" comment implies this is not just a short-term trade but a repricing of the sector's growth trajectory. Immediate de-escalation or a ceasefire could cause a short-term pullback in premiums.
Mar 02
Long
NatSec
$381.43
-
Oliver Crook reports that European defense stocks are surging (BAE Systems +6%, Hensoldt +5%, Rheinmetall +2%). He quotes Hensoldt stating there will be a "structural bid for this sector" specifically for air defense and radars. Vonnie Quinn adds that "Contractors, defense companies, drone companies, the likes of Palantir" are moving higher. The conflict involves heavy use of missiles and drones (Iran targeting Gulf states, US targeting Iran). This confirms a long-term capital expenditure cycle for air defense systems (radars, interceptors) across Europe and the Middle East, regardless of how quickly this specific conflict ends. LONG. The "structural bid" comment implies this is not just a short-term trade but a repricing of the sector's growth trajectory. Immediate de-escalation or a ceasefire could cause a short-term pullback in premiums.
Mar 02
Long
NatSec
$35.55
-
Oliver Crook reports that European defense stocks are surging (BAE Systems +6%, Hensoldt +5%, Rheinmetall +2%). He quotes Hensoldt stating there will be a "structural bid for this sector" specifically for air defense and radars. Vonnie Quinn adds that "Contractors, defense companies, drone companies, the likes of Palantir" are moving higher. The conflict involves heavy use of missiles and drones (Iran targeting Gulf states, US targeting Iran). This confirms a long-term capital expenditure cycle for air defense systems (radars, interceptors) across Europe and the Middle East, regardless of how quickly this specific conflict ends. LONG. The "structural bid" comment implies this is not just a short-term trade but a repricing of the sector's growth trajectory. Immediate de-escalation or a ceasefire could cause a short-term pullback in premiums.
Mar 02
Long
AI/Semi
$145.17
-
Oliver Crook reports that European defense stocks are surging (BAE Systems +6%, Hensoldt +5%, Rheinmetall +2%). He quotes Hensoldt stating there will be a "structural bid for this sector" specifically for air defense and radars. Vonnie Quinn adds that "Contractors, defense companies, drone companies, the likes of Palantir" are moving higher. The conflict involves heavy use of missiles and drones (Iran targeting Gulf states, US targeting Iran). This confirms a long-term capital expenditure cycle for air defense systems (radars, interceptors) across Europe and the Middle East, regardless of how quickly this specific conflict ends. LONG. The "structural bid" comment implies this is not just a short-term trade but a repricing of the sector's growth trajectory. Immediate de-escalation or a ceasefire could cause a short-term pullback in premiums.
Mar 02
Long
NatSec
$55.15
-
German Chancellor Scholz is in China, and Airbus is "set to secure a major order" for 120 planes. This confirms strong demand from China despite geopolitical tensions, solidifying Airbus's order book relative to Boeing. LONG Airbus on confirmed order flow. Geopolitical deterioration between EU and China; production delays.
Feb 26
Long
Consumer
$81.43
-
Nestlé sales growth is accelerating (3.45%), beating internal growth estimates. The company is actively negotiating the sale of its Ice Cream business and reorganizing under a new CEO. This is a classic "shrink to grow" thesis. By shedding the capital-intensive, lower-margin Ice Cream unit and focusing on high-margin segments (Pet Care, Coffee), the company improves its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). LONG. The restructuring signals a shift from empire-building to shareholder value creation. Execution risk on the divestiture or consumer pushback on pricing.
Feb 19
Long
Healthcare
$208.67
-
13F filings reveal Berkshire Hathaway has been "buying into AstraZeneca" while simultaneously slashing stakes in major US tech and financials. When the "Oracle of Omaha" rotates out of cyclical consumer/tech names into defensive healthcare, it signals a shift toward safety and undervaluation in the pharma sector. LONG AZN as a copy-trade of Berkshire's defensive rotation. Drug pipeline failures or regulatory pricing pressure in the pharmaceutical sector.
Feb 18
Long
NatSec
$234.87
-
Allies have pledged $35 billion in new military aid to Ukraine, specifically targeting "Air Defenses" and Patriot systems. RTX (Raytheon) manufactures the Patriot system. A $35B injection focused on air defense directly translates to order book growth for the prime contractors manufacturing these interceptors and batteries. LONG Defense primes, specifically those exposed to air defense systems. Geopolitical de-escalation or funding delays.
Feb 16
Long
NatSec
$200.06
-
Allies have pledged $35 billion in new military aid to Ukraine, specifically targeting "Air Defenses" and Patriot systems. RTX (Raytheon) manufactures the Patriot system. A $35B injection focused on air defense directly translates to order book growth for the prime contractors manufacturing these interceptors and batteries. LONG Defense primes, specifically those exposed to air defense systems. Geopolitical de-escalation or funding delays.
Feb 16
Showing 9 of 9 picks
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