Alpaca’s $435M raise driven by Wall Street’s tokenization push
Speakers
Luke Deans
— Senior Research Associate, Bitwise Europe
Gareth Jenson
— Head of Multimedia, The Block
Summary
Host Gareth Jenson leads a market analysis segment with Luke Deans of Bitwise Europe on Bitcoin's complacent volatility, key levels, and capital rotation out of AI into digital assets. The episode also features an interview with Alpaca CEO Yoshi Yokawa on the firm's tokenization infrastructure, $435M raise, and prime brokerage ambitions. Top stories include the Coldcard exploit fallout and regulatory moves.
- Bitcoin is in a low-volatility consolidation with complacent expectations; a large directional move is anticipated, with key levels at $68K upside and $62K downside.
- The AI/semiconductor trade is showing fragility despite euphoric highs, and its breakdown may trigger capital rotation into undervalued digital assets.
- Gold and silver remain in a bear market after a 2025 parabolic run and are extremely overvalued on long-term measures.
- Alpaca clears and custodies ~94% of tokenized US equities and operates as a regulated infrastructure backbone dubbed 'AWS of finance'.
- Alpaca is exploring prime brokerage and sees rapid growth in AI agent-driven API usage for financial services.
- News covered the Coldcard exploit, Trump meme coin probe, Cloudflare agentic payments, BlackRock ETHA share split, and Dinari tokenized stocks.
Ideas
Bitcoin poised for sharp move, watch levels.
Bitcoin is in a deeply complacent, low-volatility consolidation phase after repricing 50% from its highs. Volatility expectations across spot, options, and on-chain markets are at multi-year lows, signaling a contrarian setup for an imminent large move. Key levels to determine the next trend: reclaim of $68,000 (short-term holder cost basis) and $76,000 (true market mean) would confirm a risk-on reversal; failure to hold $62,000 (200-day MA) and $53,000 (realized price) would point to further downside.
Semiconductor sector showing fragility, watch out.
The AI trade, led by semiconductors, has entered a euphoric phase with stocks at all-time highs, but the first cracks are appearing. Recent 20% whipsaw moves in the semiconductor index reveal underlying fragility and instability in a trend built on an unstable macro platform of tightening liquidity and geopolitical risks. A breakdown in this overcrowded trade is becoming increasingly likely.
Gold and silver bear market, avoid.
Gold and silver experienced a parabolic bull market in 2025 and are now in a bear market, digesting those extreme gains. On a long-term valuation basis (200-week moving average), they remain extremely overvalued, making them unattractive in the current environment.
