Wall Street Week | USMCA: Can North America’s Trade Deal Survive?

Summary

This special edition of Wall Street Week examines the USMCA trade deal renegotiation, focusing on autos, agriculture, and energy. It highlights the deep cross-border integration, the benefits and vulnerabilities for each sector, and the views of former trade negotiators on best- and worst-case scenarios. The program underscores the need for policy certainty, the impact of U.S. tariffs, and the strategic response to China.

• Auto sector: North American supply chains make the industry competitive; fragmentation would raise costs and reduce innovation.
• Agriculture: U.S. farmers have become heavily dependent on exports to Mexico and Canada, making USMCA stability critical.
• Energy: The U.S. imports 60% of its oil from Canada and exports 70% of Mexico's natural gas; integration is deep and mutually beneficial.
• Roundtable: Former ambassadors and a trade lawyer emphasize that a 16-year renewal with modifications is the best outcome for all three nations.
• China looms over negotiations, with all parties seeking to prevent transshipment and protect North American manufacturing.
• The risk of a deal breakdown is low, but failure to modernize the agreement could leave the region less competitive against global rivals.