Inflation Is Roiling Bond Markets as Yields Rise | The Opening Trade 5/15/2026

Summary

Global bond yields rise sharply as inflation fears intensify, driven by oil prices above $107 and hot inflation data. UK gilts face additional pressure from political uncertainty after Andy Burnham moves to challenge Prime Minister Starmer. Equities sell off across regions, with tech and real estate hit hardest. Guest Paul Skinner sees a buying opportunity in long-dated UK gilts if yields reach 6.25% or above.

• Global bond yields surge, with UK 10-year up 11 bps and Japan 30-year hitting 4% for first time since 1999.
• Oil prices remain elevated above $107 amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure.
• Trump-Xi summit yields modest trade deals but no breakthrough on chips or Iran.
• UK political uncertainty weighs on gilts and sterling as Andy Burnham pursues Labour leadership.
• European equities open lower, led by basic resources, banks, and real estate.
• US equity strategist Laurie Colvin outlines S&P 500 scenarios but offers no active trade.
• OpenAI executives report strong enterprise demand and accelerating Codex adoption.
• Paul Skinner of Wellington Management recommends buying UK 30-year gilts at yields above 6.25%.