O BOOM DO E-COMMERCE VAI FAZER ESSE MERCADO EXPLODIR NO BRASIL

Summary

Fernando Crestana argues that Brazil's logistics warehouse market is at an early stage of a structural boom driven by rising e-commerce penetration. He highlights that the current warehouse park is small, vacancy is low, and demand will continue to grow as e-commerce reaches levels seen in developed markets. The competitive e-commerce landscape (Mercado Livre, Amazon, Shopee, Magalu) benefits warehouse owners.

• E-commerce penetration in Brazil is only 10-12%, well below the US (20-25%) and China (>30%), suggesting room to double.
• The national logistics warehouse park has grown from 13M m² to 30M m² in 5-6 years, yet remains small versus Mexico and US cities.
• Vacancy rates have collapsed from ~25% to ~8%, indicating supply is lagging demand.
• E-commerce requires 2-3x more warehouse space than traditional retail due to inventory and distribution needs.
• Faster delivery expectations (same-day/last-hour) will increase the need for localized warehouses.
• Brazil's logistics infrastructure challenges (dominant road transport, continental size) make warehouse location critical.
• The shift from B2B to B2C distribution is structurally boosting logistics real estate demand.
• Competition among e-commerce players drives investment in fulfillment centers, benefiting warehouse landlords.