150 Trillion Won in Funding Will Be Secured: What's the Impact on Stock Prices? | Kim Rok-ho, Hana Securities Research Center Team Leader [Double Up]

Summary

Kim Rok-ho, Hana Securities Research Center Team Leader, analyzes the outlook for Korean memory semiconductor stocks Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He argues that current share prices already price in a severe down-cycle, with Samsung offering greater near-term earnings upside from DRAM price rises and SK hynix benefiting from HBM re-pricing next year. Both companies are expected to announce large shareholder return programs, with Samsung’s 130-150 trillion won plan providing immediate support. Overall, he remains bullish on semiconductors despite near-term uncertainty.

• Samsung Electronics has more room for upward earnings revisions from DRAM prices due to lower long-term contract lock-in.
• SK hynix’s stock has strong support as it already reflects a severe downturn, with HBM contract re-pricing a catalyst for next year.
• Both companies are preparing shareholder return policies; Samsung’s 130-150 trillion won allocation will include about 60 trillion won in buybacks.
• General DRAM price increase in Q3 is expected at 10-15% but may be constrained by existing long-term supply agreements.
• Supply expansion fears are overblown in the near term, with meaningful capacity additions unlikely before late 2027-2028.
• The speaker expects Korean memory stocks to recover to previous highs over time, supported by fundamentals.