A CRISE DO STF VAI MUDAR A ELEIÇÃO DE 2026? | Risco Brasil #55

Summary

The episode discusses Brazil's STF crisis and its possible impact on the 2026 presidential election, combining political analysis, social media data, polls, and market views. Guests analyze the Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro race, the Moraes/Mendonça dispute, the 'third stabbing' rhetoric, and model-based probabilities. Market implications center on Brazilian equities, the real, local rates, and Polymarket election odds.

• Political crisis around the STF and Moraes/Mendonça dominates the election debate.
• Social media data shows negative sentiment toward Moraes but limited direct damage to Lula, while Flávio's sentiment also fell.
• The latest Quest poll shows a 41-41 second-round tie and makes a first-round victory look unlikely.
• Vinicius Justo's predictive model gives Lula 49% and Flávio Bolsonaro 47% overall win probability.
• Market participants see upside for Brazilian stocks and scenario-dependent moves in the real and local yield curve.
• José Dezene Jr argues Polymarket is overpricing Lula and underpricing Flávio relative to a closer race.
• Upcoming debates, new polls, and possible STF/Master revelations may drive election and market volatility.