Meta-induced bad news, is it the shepherd boy's last lie? | Hong Seon-ae, Jang Woo-jin, Geumsigong CEO [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Geumsigong CEO Jang Ho-jin discusses the July 2nd market crash triggered by Meta’s potential to lease excess AI cloud capacity and hawkish Fed comments. He notes that KOSPI and Samsung Electronics have broken their 35-day moving average, raising the risk of a trend reversal. While expecting a short-term technical rebound, he advises reducing semiconductor exposure and increasing cash. He highlights a rotation into domestic Korean financials, internet platforms, and inbound tourism names that showed relative strength.

• Meta considers selling surplus AI compute, triggering an 'overcapacity' scare that hit global semiconductor names.
• Fed’s Kevin Warsh made hawkish remarks, reinforcing liquidity withdrawal fears and pushing up US yields.
• KOSPI and Samsung Electronics broke key 35-day moving averages, signaling a possible uptrend break and right-shoulder top.
• Speaker believes a technical bounce is likely but warns that the subsequent move will be critical for determining the trend.
• Advises reducing Korean semiconductor exposure (Samsung, SK Hynix) due to memory price bubble risks.
• Domestic rotation themes emerged: banks (Shinhan, KB), internet (Naver, Kakao) and inbound tourism stocks held up well and may lead a rebound.
• National Pension Service’s selling is seen as gradual and not a near-term destabilizer, as its equity weighting has already declined.
• Dollar Index approaching 102 is flagged as a key level to monitor for global liquidity pressure.