What Is the Real Black Swan That Could Turn the Korean Stock Market into a Crash? / Why the KOSPI Could Rise Above 5,500 in the First Half | Daishin Securities Manager Lee Kyung-min

한국증시를 한 방에 '폭락장'으로 만들 진짜 블랙스완은 무엇일까? / 상반기 코스피 5500 그 이상 오를 것으로 보는 이유 | 대신증권 이경민 부장
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 23, 2026 at 07:00  |  25:49  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Lee Gyeong-min — Manager

Summary

Lee Kyung-min, FICC Research Manager at Daishin Securities, assesses the main risks facing Korean and global markets, including Greenland-related trade tensions, the delayed US Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump's approval and midterms, semiconductor tariffs, and yen carry-trade worries. He remains bullish on KOSPI in the first half because 12-month forward EPS is still rising and semiconductor earnings estimates have surged. He expects tariff uncertainty to ease after the Supreme Court ruling, favors US Treasuries and domestic-demand-oriented US equities such as S&P 500, Dow, and consumer stocks over Nasdaq, and stresses AI stock differentiation by cash flow and profitability.

  • Trump de-escalated Greenland rhetoric; the TACO pattern may limit major shocks before the 2026 midterms.
  • The Supreme Court tariff ruling could reduce uncertainty and lower Treasury yields.
  • Later 2027 Trump risk may rise after the midterms, but H1 2026 looks stronger.
  • Semiconductor tariffs are seen as negotiation cards while Korean chip earnings estimates have surged.
  • A yen carry-trade unwind is viewed as noise rather than a 2024-style shock.
  • KOSPI is in an earnings-driven bull market, with H1 target 5,300 and upside above 5,500 if EPS rises.
  • US fiscal stimulus would favor S&P 500, Dow, and consumer stocks over Nasdaq.
  • AI stocks are diverging on profitability; Alphabet outperforms while Oracle and Broadcom lag.
Ideas
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 0:00
Hold KOSPI while forward EPS rises.
KOSPI is in an earnings-driven bull market. Since 2001, KOSPI has shown a 0.93 correlation with 12-month forward EPS, and there has been no sustained downtrend while forward EPS rises. His H1 2026 target is around 5,300; if EPS rises another 5%, 11.2x P/E implies 5,468 and 12x implies 5,600, so he prefers keeping upside open and holding the index until forward EPS stops rising. The main risk is 2026-2027 earnings rolling over, especially if 2027 semiconductor operating profit growth turns negative.
EWY HIGH
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 0:00
Korean chip earnings still strong.
Korean semiconductor earnings power is the core KOSPI driver: 2026 semiconductor operating profit consensus rose from about KRW 80tn in September 2025 to over KRW 200tn, with one-month consensus above KRW 230tn. Semiconductor tariffs are viewed as a negotiation card rather than an immediate shock, and Korean/Taiwan chip stocks did not sell off materially; semiconductors are also not among the top US export categories most exposed to a tariff Plan B. However, if 2027 semiconductor operating profit growth slows to 4.8% or turns negative, he would turn cautious.
Korean semiconductor sector HIGH
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 12:58
Buy Treasuries as tariff uncertainty fades.
Once the US Supreme Court tariff ruling is resolved, trade-policy uncertainty should ease and Treasury yields should stabilize or trend lower. Even if the ruling invalidates IEEPA tariffs, the alternative legal tools have lower tariff caps and stricter conditions, and tariff recovery would take time; this should be less concerning for markets than many fear. He therefore recommends viewing the post-ruling phase as one of uncertainty reduction and lower bond yields.
TLT MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 14:00
Watch Korean export sectors on tariff risk.
If the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs and Trump moves to a weaker Plan B, Korean sectors with high US export exposure could wobble. The top US-bound export categories include vehicles, nuclear reactor machinery, electrical machinery/equipment, and petroleum products; autos, nuclear power, and power equipment already weakened during the Greenland tariff scare. Semiconductors are relatively insulated, so the risk is concentrated in these other export sectors.
Korean autos Korean nuclear reactor machinery Korean electrical and power equipment Korean petroleum products MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 15:30
Prefer S&P 500 and Dow over Nasdaq.
If Trump pivots toward a fiscal stimulus drive before the midterms, S&P 500 and Dow are more attractive than Nasdaq because the stimulus would be domestic-demand oriented. Nasdaq can still rise, but AI profitability concerns have reduced its upside momentum, so he prefers broad US large-cap indices over AI-heavy Nasdaq.
SPY DJI MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 15:30
Prefer S&P 500 and Dow over Nasdaq.
If Trump pivots toward a fiscal stimulus drive before the midterms, S&P 500 and Dow are more attractive than Nasdaq because the stimulus would be domestic-demand oriented. Nasdaq can still rise, but AI profitability concerns have reduced its upside momentum, so he prefers broad US large-cap indices over AI-heavy Nasdaq.
NASDAQ Composite MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 16:45
Favor Alphabet; avoid Oracle and Broadcom.
The AI profitability controversy triggered differentiation rather than a sector-wide bubble. Investors should now separate AI names by profitability, stability, and cash flow: Alphabet has performed well, while Oracle and Broadcom have failed to rebound properly after sharp declines. Nasdaq P/E has fallen since its 2020 peak, supporting the view that this is not a broad AI bubble but a stock-picking market.
GOOGL MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 16:45
Favor Alphabet; avoid Oracle and Broadcom.
The AI profitability controversy triggered differentiation rather than a sector-wide bubble. Investors should now separate AI names by profitability, stability, and cash flow: Alphabet has performed well, while Oracle and Broadcom have failed to rebound properly after sharp declines. Nasdaq P/E has fallen since its 2020 peak, supporting the view that this is not a broad AI bubble but a stock-picking market.
ORCL AVGO MED
Lee Gyeong-min Manager 17:27
Fiscal stimulus favors US consumer stocks.
If Trump launches the expected fiscal/demand stimulus drive—consumer coupons, tax cuts, and pressure on the Fed for rate cuts—US consumer-related stocks could be especially strong. Because the stimulus is domestic-demand oriented, it favors consumer exposure more than AI-led Nasdaq growth.
XLY MED
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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published January 23, 2026, features Lee Gyeong-min discussing EWY, Korean semiconductor sector, TLT, Korean autos, Korean nuclear reactor machinery, Korean electrical and power equipment, Korean petroleum products, SPY, DJI, NASDAQ Composite, GOOGL, ORCL, AVGO, XLY. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Gyeong-min  · Tickers: EWY, Korean semiconductor sector, TLT, Korean autos, Korean nuclear reactor machinery, Korean electrical and power equipment, Korean petroleum products, SPY, DJI, NASDAQ Composite, GOOGL, ORCL, AVGO, XLY