Why Semiconductor Stocks Can't Smile Amid NVIDIA's Surge? | Kim Young-hwan, Yeo Do-eun, Heo Jae-mu [Morning N Investment]

Summary

Kim Young-hwan discusses why Nvidia's strong earnings and AI-investment confidence have not lifted memory and semiconductor stocks, citing memory price ceilings, USD/KRW translation drag, and 2026 capacity-cycle uncertainty. He outlines two catalysts that could restore memory sentiment before a full year of earnings proof: lower rates and aggressive shareholder returns. He also covers Jackson Hole, Fed long-end rate policy, Korea's preemptive rate hike, USD/KRW, and US election-year seasonality.

• Nvidia earnings impressed with 70%+ next-year growth guidance, easing AI-bubble and vendor-financing concerns.
• Memory names lag because chip prices may be near a ceiling, USD/KRW is lower, and 2026 capacity expansion creates price-cycle risk.
• Past memory margin peaks often led to sharp earnings declines within a year, so the market demands proof.
• Lower rates and stronger memory-company buybacks are two early sentiment catalysts to watch.
• Jackson Hole may produce signals on Operation Twist-style long-end Treasury yield suppression rather than explicit rate guidance.
• USD/KRW's downside below 1,350 is seen as limited, but sustained current levels pressure exporter earnings.
• US midterm election-year seasonality points to weak September-October and better November-December.