July 6 Closing Market Review: Directionless Korean Market — Supply-Demand Imbalance Ignoring Earnings

Summary

The panel reviews a directionless KOSPI session that swung 500 points before closing slightly lower, and a KOSDAQ battered by leveraged ETF liquidity drain. Key ideas revolve around Samsung Electronics' expected Q2 earnings beat, SK hynix near-term pressure from ADR pricing, and a rotation into undervalued sectors such as autos, shipbuilding, defence, securities, refining, cosmetics, entertainment, and select tech components.

• KOSPI lost 0.46% to 2844 after swinging between 28300 and 27810; KOSDAQ fell 2.4% as leveraged ETFs sucked money from small-caps.
• Samsung Electronics likely to report Q2 revenue around 90 trillion won vs consensus ~84 trillion, with Meritz raising target to 500,000 won — seen as a new entry point.
• SK hynix declined on ADR pricing overhang; institutions may keep the stock under pressure until the offering price is set.
• Kia and Hyundai Mobis rallied on strong Q2 earnings expectations and rebound from oversold levels.
• Hanwha Ocean remains a speculative bet on Canada’s 60 trillion won submarine project; a win could be disproportionately large for its small market cap.
• Shipbuilding, defence, and securities sectors are fundamentally strong but their earnings improvements have not been reflected in prices.
• Oil refiners GS and S-Oil enjoyed high margins despite crude price swings, with S-Oil's Shaheen project adding a unique growth catalyst.
• Cosmetics, entertainment, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics were highlighted as beaten-down names with good data but no market recognition yet.