Bacen corta os juros, mas gera desconfiança; Trump perdeu a guerra no Irã?; SpaceX decola no IPO

Summary

Fernando Ulrich discusses the Brazilian Central Bank's rate cut to 14.25% and the communication missteps that led to higher DI future rates, questions the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that reopened the Strait of Hormuz but is seen as a win for Iran, and marvels at the record SpaceX IPO volume. He also comments on the AI sector competition, OpenAI's massive losses, and his personal holding in Strategy's preferred stock (STRC) amid the sell-off.

• Brazil's COPOM cut rates to 14.25% but a changed statement triggered volatility and a credibility dent.
• Household debt service ratio at historic highs underscores the need for lower rates, despite communication noise.
• US-Iran memorandum preliminary deal restarts Strait of Hormuz navigation but is criticized as a loss for the US.
• SpaceX IPO raised $85bn and generated daily volumes multiple times the entire Brazilian stock exchange.
• ChatGPT's market share declined while Google Gemini gains, and OpenAI's leaked $21bn loss raises survival concerns.
• The speaker remains long on Strategy's preferred stock (STRC), dismissing the sell-off as a death spiral narrative.
• Argentina's peso is stable near 1500/USD; mild depreciation may still be needed for competitiveness.