Oil Holds Below $80 as Iran Peace Deal Details Emerge | The Asia Trade 6/17/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 17, 2026 at 06:56  |  1:35:10  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer
Ray Attrill — Global Head of FX Strategy, NAB
Aisa Ogoshi — APAC Equities Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management
Parash Jain — Global Head of Transport and Logistics Research, HSBC
WINNIE SUE — Asia Markets Reporter
Faris Mocktar — Senior Southeast Asia Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

Oil slides below $80 as details of the US-Iran peace deal emerge, including immediate crude sales and asset unfreezing. Asian markets brace for a tech selloff and rotation ahead of the first Fed decision under Chair Kevin Warsh. SpaceX surpasses Amazon after the Cursor acquisition, while strategists highlight yuan strength, yen weakness, and China semiconductor plays.

  • US-Iran deal draft offers broad financial incentives and immediate oil-selling rights, sending crude to three-month lows.
  • Oil collapse drives rotation out of chips and tech into cyclicals, with Korea/Taiwan seen underperforming and Japan industrials/banks benefiting.
  • Fed under new Chair Warsh expected to hold; focus on dot plot and communication style shifts that could impact volatility.
  • BOJ hikes to 1% but dovish messaging keeps JGB yields low and yen pinned near 160, supporting a weak-yen, carry-friendly backdrop.
  • NAB's Ray Attrill sees yuan strengthening to 6.50, yen remaining weak, and Aussie grinding higher on carry appeal.
  • JPMorgan's Aisa Ogoshi favors tech upside, Japan factory automation and financials, China semiconductor equipment, and China energy storage.
  • HSBC's Parash Jain sees near-term container shipping bullish on congestion but medium-term downside from capacity glut, and short Cathay Pacific as Middle East carriers return.
  • SpaceX rockets past Amazon as IPO accelerates rotation into an AI concept stock combining space and AI coding via Cursor.
Ideas
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 8:15
Short Korea/Taiwan; long Japan cyclicals
The overnight semiconductor selloff driven by falling oil prices signals a rotation out of tech into cyclicals. Korea and Taiwan, dominated by chip makers, will underperform, while Japan industrials and banks benefit from lower oil and rotational flows.
EWY EWT MED
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 8:15
Short Korea/Taiwan; long Japan cyclicals
The overnight semiconductor selloff driven by falling oil prices signals a rotation out of tech into cyclicals. Korea and Taiwan, dominated by chip makers, will underperform, while Japan industrials and banks benefit from lower oil and rotational flows.
DXJ DXJY MED
Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 9:00
Long SpaceX as AI concept leader
SpaceX is becoming an exciting AI concept stock that combines space and AI via acquisitions like Cursor. It is taking flow from MAG7, with record options activity on IPO day, and should continue to outperform as retail piles in.
SPCX HIGH
Ray Attrill Global Head of FX Strategy, NAB 19:38
Long yuan to 6.50
China is strategically allowing the yuan to appreciate, supported by strong exports and real effective exchange rate dynamics. NAB forecasts USD/CNY moving from 6.75 towards 6.50 over the next 12 months, making the yuan bullish.
CNY HIGH
Ray Attrill Global Head of FX Strategy, NAB 22:03
Yen remains fundamentally weak
Despite the BOJ rate hike, persistent QE-like JGB purchases keep JGB yields suppressed, and the wide short-end rate gap with the US remains. In a low-volatility environment, low-yielding currencies like the yen underperform, keeping it fundamentally weak around 160.
FXY MED
Ray Attrill Global Head of FX Strategy, NAB 22:51
Long Aussie dollar on carry
In a low-volatility environment, the Australian dollar benefits from having the highest short-term interest rates in G10, while low-yielding currencies underperform. This carry advantage should allow the Aussie to grind higher.
AUD/USD MED
Aisa Ogoshi APAC Equities Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management 51:12
Tech still has upside
Despite rotation fears, the tech trade still has more upside, driven by AI data center supply chain shifts to lower-cost solutions like ASICs and power management, with strong positioning in Asian supply chains.
XLK MED
Aisa Ogoshi APAC Equities Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management 52:06
Long Japan factory automation
Core machinery orders are recovering globally, and Japan has a large share in factory automation. This broad order recovery supports a bullish outlook for the sector.
Japan Factory Automation MED
Aisa Ogoshi APAC Equities Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management 54:45
Long China semiconductor equipment
China's semiconductor equipment localization push is real, driven by both government directive and lack of Nvidia supply. Local usage is high, and China's cheap electricity compensates for technology lags, making the sector attractive.
CHIQ MED
Aisa Ogoshi APAC Equities Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management 56:46
Long China energy storage
The Iran conflict intensifies the global build-out of energy storage systems (ESS). China is the global supplier across the ESS supply chain, and the sector is already showing strength, benefiting from this structural shift.
LIT MED
Parash Jain Global Head of Transport and Logistics Research, HSBC 78:04
Long container shipping near-term
Rerouting and vessel imbalance, plus dry docking of stranded ships, will absorb capacity and cause near-term congestion and dislocation in container shipping, which is bullish for the sector.
Container Shipping MED
Parash Jain Global Head of Transport and Logistics Research, HSBC 79:22
Short Cathay Pacific on fare normalization
Middle Eastern carriers are returning aggressively with lower fares and perks, while Cathay Pacific's ultra-high crisis-era fares will normalize in the second half, pressuring its earnings.
Cathay Pacific MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 17, 2026, features Anthony Stevens, Ray Attrill, Aisa Ogoshi, Parash Jain discussing EWY, EWT, DXJ, DXJY, SPCX, CNY, FXY, AUD/USD, XLK, Japan Factory Automation, CHIQ, LIT, Container Shipping, Cathay Pacific. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anthony Stevens, Ray Attrill, Aisa Ogoshi, Parash Jain  · Tickers: EWY, EWT, DXJ, DXJY, SPCX, CNY, FXY, AUD/USD, XLK, Japan Factory Automation, CHIQ, LIT, Container Shipping, Cathay Pacific