The Housing Market Just Flashed A Rare Warning Signal w/ Melody Wright

Summary

Mortgage expert Melody Wright explains that despite seasonal strength, cracks are forming in the US housing market: early-stage delinquencies are rising out of season, official inventory data grossly undercounts supply, boomers are dumping vacation and rental properties, and distress selling is spreading. She warns this sets up for accelerating price declines later in 2025 as foreclosures rise.

• Early-stage 30-day mortgage delinquencies are increasing despite seasonal patterns that typically see declines.
• Major data sources like FRED and Realtor.com are missing ~25% of active inventory, especially new homes, leading observers to underestimate supply.
• Baby boomers are offloading secondary homes, vacation properties, and Airbnb units due to surging property taxes, insurance, and unaffordability.
• Over half of her tracked local markets show signs of distress selling, and 33 of 85 cities have year-over-year home price declines.
• Foreclosure filings are up 26% year-over-year, and she expects delinquency-driven forced selling to accelerate price declines in H2 2025.
• On-the-ground research reveals a massive gap between official data and actual inventory/activity, leaving many investors misinformed.