Inside the NSS: The Korea-U.S. Alliance Is an Asset, but Korea Pays? U.S. Calculations Revealed / The Moment Taiwan Declares Independence, China's Invasion of Taiwan Begins | Professor Park Won-gon

Summary

Professor Park Won-gon analyzes the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy as an America-first, transactional document that treats alliances as assets requiring cost-sharing. The discussion focuses on higher allied defense spending, U.S.-China competition, Taiwan Strait risk, USFK's changing role, and a possible Trump-Kim meeting. The main market-relevant thread is upward pressure on defense budgets across Korea, Japan, NATO, Taiwan, and the U.S.

• Park frames the 2025 NSS as America-first, with the U.S. no longer acting as the world's police and focusing on core interests.
• The NSS treats alliances as assets and demands that allies share more costs.
• Defense spending targets mentioned include Korea at 3.5% of GDP by 2035, NATO at 5%, and Taiwan under pressure for a tenfold increase.
• The U.S. still prioritizes the first island chain and Taiwan Strait but softens language on unilateral changes and avoids a clear military commitment.
• Park sees high Taiwan Strait tension and possible accidental escalation, though he doubts Taiwan will declare independence because the U.S. would discourage it.
• USFK is unlikely to be withdrawn, but its role is shifting toward an Indo-Pacific and China-focused air/naval posture.
• Park sees a possible Trump-Kim meeting in the first half of 2026, possibly in Beijing, with the U.S. midterms as a political constraint.