Between Surges and Crashes, What You Must Check in the Volatile Semiconductor Market

Summary

Park Jun-young, CEO of Hanbando Co., argues that despite extreme market volatility, semiconductor memory fundamentals remain unchanged: a structural wafer shortage will persist until late 2027, driven by AI infrastructure spending and long-term supply agreements. He strongly favors Korean memory leaders Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, global top equipment monopolies like ASML and Applied Materials, and select Korean materials/parts names like KoMiCo as beneficiaries of the upcoming wafer ramp. Big tech firms face AI adaptation challenges, memory is now an AI essential rather than a cyclical commodity, and the current sell-off is largely a leveraged ETF unwinding rather than an industry downturn.

• Memory wafer production is fully utilized with no capacity increase until late 2027, ensuring continued shortage.
• AI and HBM make high-performance memory a requirement, reducing cyclicality; LTA contracts stabilize volumes and pricing.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain fundamentally sound; the speaker would keep buying on dips despite market fear.
• The top five global equipment companies (ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron) are monopolistic and set for steady uptrends.
• Korean materials/parts companies like KoMiCo offer recurring revenue and may surge when wafer lines start operating.
• Big tech firms (Meta, Apple) are struggling with AI transition while memory suppliers gain pricing power.
• Kioxia is overhyped and technologically weak; Chinese memory (CXMT) still lags years behind in technology and yield.
• Short-term pain from leveraged ETF unwinding, but medium-term outlook remains positive.