Doubt and Doubt Again... Is the Resumed Bull Market "Real"? What Are the Risks That Will Make It Fall Again? | Director Lee Jin-woo

Doubt and doubt again... Is the resumed bull market "real"? "What are the risks that will make it fall again?" | Director Lee Jin-woo

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 15 августа 2026, 08:30 | 26:56 | 815 Money Talk (815머니톡)

Спикеры

Lee Jin-woo — Director, GFM Investment Research

Lee Jin-woo discusses whether the resumed bull market is real and what macro risks could break it again. He focuses on the BOJ rate hike and yen carry trade, U.S. Treasury/fiscal stress, semiconductor volatility driven by leveraged flows, and the USD/KRW outlook. He advises maintaining a skeptical, flexible posture rather than chasing euphoria. - Lee Jin-woo says macro is becoming decisive again after a period when markets ignored it. - He flags the September BOJ rate decision and yen carry trade reaction as the main risk checkpoint. - He sees semiconductor/memory names as caught between AI-positive rental data and HBM depreciation concerns, with leveraged ETF and hedge-fund flows amplifying moves. - He views U.S. Treasuries as pressured by deficits and foreign selling risk despite U.S. policy interventions. - On USD/KRW, he does not expect 1,600-1,700 from domestic fundamentals and sees a possible 1,300 test if support breaks. - He warns against chasing new market cult leaders and recommends staying skeptical and ready to exit in the next volatility spike.

Идеи

Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 9:04

Watch BOJ hike and yen carry.

The key macro trigger is the coming BOJ rate hike. The market already expects a 25bp BOJ move around the September meeting, similar to August 2024. If the BOJ hikes and markets take it calmly, the rest of 2026 and early 2027 can probably proceed without major trouble; but if markets tremble, yen carry trade unwinds become a clear warning signal and investors should turn defensive.

Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 10:41

US Treasuries face fiscal and selling risk.

The U.S. Treasury market is structurally vulnerable because chronic fiscal deficits and heavy issuance mean foreign holders may sell Treasuries when funding tightens. Washington is trying to prevent this with FX intervention, lending facilities, and warnings not to sell U.S. debt, but interest costs already exceed defense spending and the risk remains. Lee is watching whether Treasury Secretary Bessent can actually defend Treasury yields and dollar funding.

Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 12:18

Semis are two-sided and flow-driven.

Semiconductor and memory stocks are two-sided rather than one-way. Michael Burry's short on HBM names is based on depreciation running only about three years, while CoreWeave-type data suggests AI rental prices keep rising and AI assets may hold value even to ten years. On top of that, leveraged ETF and hedge fund flows, including Citadel's activity, are creating violent, flow-driven swings that are not primarily fundamental. Lee expects continued volatility and says the story is not finished.

Lee Jin-woo Director, GFM Investment Research 21:41

Watch USD/KRW range; break targets 1300.

On FX, domestic Korean external fundamentals do not support a move to 1,600-1,700 won unless wealthy residents aggressively ship dollars abroad. USD/KRW is likely to trade inside a range defined by trendlines; if the lower support line breaks on heavy supply, a quick move to around 1,300 won is likely. Korean retail investors facing FX losses on U.S. stocks and possible repatriation if U.S. markets wobble could add to won strength.