A FARIA LIMA ESTÁ ERRANDO A ELEIÇÃO DE 2026?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 06, 2026 at 23:30  |  11:44  |  Market Makers
Speakers
Maurício Moura — Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia

Summary

Maurício Moura explains how his electoral-event fund tries to strip out political bias and find asymmetries between market pricing and on-the-ground election reality. He recounts visiting Turkey in 2023, finding the market was wrong about the opposition's chances, and trading the interest-rate curve for an Erdogan win. He also discusses Argentina's Milei election as a home run, argues emerging markets offer more election mispricings, and warns that Brazilian market participants are overestimating Renan Santos and Zema relative to Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

  • Maurício Moura describes his event-driven election fund approach combining quantitative modeling and field research.
  • In Turkey's 2023 election, fieldwork led him to conclude the opposition had no chance despite market optimism.
  • The fund positioned for Erdogan and high Turkish interest rates, going against market consensus.
  • He highlights the Argentina Milei election as a successful opposite-side market trade.
  • Emerging markets are presented as more fertile ground for election-related asymmetry than developed markets.
  • For Brazil's 2026 election, he argues market WhatsApp groups overprice Renan Santos and Zema while real voters focus on Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • He warns against letting political preference or wishful thinking contaminate investment positioning.
Ideas
Maurício Moura Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia 6:13
Rates curve positioned for Erdogan victory
During the 2023 Turkish election, the market was bullish on the opposition winning because of hyperinflation and Erdogan's low-rate pressure. Fieldwork showed the state machine was working for Erdogan and the opposition had no chance, so the fund went against the market and positioned for an Erdogan win via a high Turkish interest-rate curve trade.
Turkey interest rates curve HIGH
Maurício Moura Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia 10:54
Argentina trade against market anxiety won
In Argentina's election, the market was very anxious about Milei in Congress, but he was very confident in his own read; that opposite-side positioning produced a home run for the fund.
ARGT MED
Maurício Moura Gestor do fundo ASA ZFTRA; doutor em Economia e Política; fundador do Instituto Ideia 11:11
Emerging markets offer more election mispricings
After almost 3.5 years running the fund, he learned emerging markets offer more election-related asymmetry than developed markets because fewer people watch them; he specifically cites Turkey, Argentina, India, South Africa, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador as places with more mispricing opportunities.
EEM MED
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This Market Makers video, published September 06, 2026, features Maurício Moura discussing Turkey interest rates curve, ARGT, EEM. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Maurício Moura  · Tickers: Turkey interest rates curve, ARGT, EEM