The Market is Staring Intently at 'This', Critical Variable for Semiconductors | Lee Hyung-soo HSL Partners CEO

Summary

Lee Hyung-soo, CEO of HSL Partners, argues the AI semiconductor cycle is far from over and will continue into H1 2025 with a potential bubble finale. He demonstrates that four key fundamental checks—hyperscaler capex, inventory levels, spot/contract pricing, and Micron's stock trend—all remain healthy, so the recent sell-off was driven by derivatives and positioning. He compares Samsung Electronics' detailed, shareholder-focused Q2 conference call favorably against SK Hynix's lackluster IR, highlighting Samsung's multiple re-rating progress while still seeing re-rating potential for SK Hynix through upcoming shareholder return plans, HBM price hikes, and possible index inclusion.

• AI semiconductor cycle extends at least through H1 2025 with a possible speculative finale.
• Four fundamental indicators (capex, inventory, pricing, Micron) show no cycle peak.
• July sell-off was a derivatives/positioning event, not a fundamental breakdown.
• Samsung's Q2 call was constructive and detailed on shareholder value, supporting a multiple re-rating.
• SK Hynix's IR lacked shareholder return detail but August announcement and HBM price surge are catalysts.
• SK Hynix may enter the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, lifting its stock level.
• Short-term uncertainty persists into Q3, but a sharp technical bounce is already underway.