The opportunity to diversify outside the U.S. is among the greatest in history: Mary Ann Bartels
Speakers
Mary Ann Bartels
— Chief Investment Strategist, Sanctuary Wealth
Summary
Mary Ann Bartels discusses the secular bull market, forecasting S&P 500 to 10,000-13,000 by 2029-2030. She identifies new leadership emerging in small caps, commodities, energy, and international markets, while tech and semiconductors will continue to lead for now. She also expects an inflationary cycle and higher bond yields.
- Bartels maintains a bullish long-term S&P 500 target of 10,000-13,000 by 2029-2030.
- She sees tech and semiconductors driving the market until the end of the decade.
- She recommends diversifying into international equities, citing new secular bulls in Japan, Europe, and emerging ex-China.
- She believes the early stages of new leadership are appearing in small caps, commodities, and energy.
- She expects the 10-year yield to normalize around 5-6% and possibly reach 10% longer term.
- She warns that after the tech leadership peaks, the market will enter a secular bear.
- She advises staying fully invested but knowing what you own to avoid the eventual downturn.
Trade Ideas
S&P 500 to 10,000-13,000 by 2029-2030
The secular bull market that started in 2013 will continue until around 2029-2030, with the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 to 13,000 by then. Near-term, the next level to watch is 7800. Despite a possible pullback, the long-term trend is upward.
New leadership in small caps, commodities, energy
The early stages of new market leadership have already emerged in small cap stocks, commodities, and energy. These will become the leading sectors after tech peaks, similar to the rotation from tech to energy in 1999-2000.
New secular bull in international markets
A new secular bull market has started in Japan, Europe, and emerging markets excluding China. The opportunity to diversify outside the US is one of the greatest in history, as US tech leadership will eventually wane and international markets will become the new leaders.
Tech and semis lead until 2029-2030
Tech and semiconductors are the current leadership and will continue to drive the markets higher into the end of the decade. When this leadership ends, the market will peak.
