Is Trump’s Venezuela Oil Plan a $100 Billion Gamble?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 05, 2026 at 07:11  |  4:05  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Salih Yilmaz — Bloomberg Analyst
Donald Trump — President of the United States

Summary

Bloomberg Intelligence senior oil analyst Salih Yilmaz discusses President Trump's plan for US oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Yilmaz says companies are unlikely to commit without political and operational certainty, and that any extra supply may pressure the back end of the oil curve while spot prices could remain little changed. He highlights Chevron's operational upside and Exxon/ConocoPhillips' legal upside, while saying Eni and Repsol lack similar upside. The segment frames the Venezuela reopening as a long, uncertain process with selective company implications.

  • Trump proposed US oil majors spend billions to fix Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
  • Salih Yilmaz says US oil companies need political stability, security, and favorable terms before investing.
  • Venezuela heavy oil has higher breakevens, and global oil companies are cautious on CapEx.
  • Yilmaz sees little spot oil price impact but pressure on the back end of the oil curve.
  • Chevron is cited as having operational upside in Venezuela relative to US peers.
  • Exxon and ConocoPhillips are cited as having legal upside from prior expropriated assets.
  • Eni and Repsol are already operating under sanctions and lack similar upside.
  • Overall, the Venezuela revival is viewed as uncertain and years-long.
Ideas
Salih Yilmaz Bloomberg Analyst 1:54
Back-end crude curve faces flattening pressure.
Yilmaz says Venezuela's potential supply return is unlikely to move spot crude much, but it should put pressure on the back end of the oil curve, where oil companies base investment decisions. With already soft prices and heavy-oil breakevens, the back end of the curve could flatten, making long-dated crude futures vulnerable.
Back-end crude oil futures MED
Salih Yilmaz Bloomberg Analyst 3:14
Exxon, Conoco have legal Venezuela upside.
Yilmaz names Exxon and ConocoPhillips as the US majors most likely to return to Venezuela because they previously had assets seized and nationalized. While they may not have Chevron's operational upside, they have immediate legal upside and could re-enter if terms and security are sufficient.
XOM COP MED
Salih Yilmaz Bloomberg Analyst 3:36
Chevron has best operational Venezuela upside.
Yilmaz says Chevron has operational upside in Venezuela that Exxon and ConocoPhillips lack, making it the best-positioned US major for a potential reopening. The view is relative and still depends on political and operational certainty.
CVX MED
Salih Yilmaz Bloomberg Analyst 3:51
Repsol, Eni lack similar Venezuela upside.
Yilmaz says Eni and Repsol already operate in Venezuela in compliance with sanctions, so they do not have the same legal or operational upside as US companies if the country reopens. He implies limited relative benefit for the European names.
REP.MC E MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 05, 2026, features Salih Yilmaz discussing Back-end crude oil futures, XOM, COP, CVX, REP.MC, E. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Salih Yilmaz  · Tickers: Back-end crude oil futures, XOM, COP, CVX, REP.MC, E