There are a lot of positives that are lining up for the market and the economy: Anastasia Amoroso

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 07, 2026 at 13:05  |  5:51  |  CNBC
Speakers
Anastasia Amoroso — iCapital
Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box

Summary

Anastasia Amoroso joins Squawk Box to discuss her 2026 market outlook. She sees the S&P 500 reaching about 7,700, supported by stable multiples, Fed support, earnings growth, AI-driven productivity, margin expansion, and midterm affordability efforts. She is constructive on AI adoption but cautious on stretched AI valuations and flags AI disappointment as the biggest down-year risk. She also expects normal 5-10% corrections and suggests keeping dry powder.

  • Amoroso forecasts the S&P 500 around 7,700, roughly a 9% return.
  • She cites 12% earnings growth this year and 10% next year.
  • AI and productivity are driving corporate margin expansion to 13.9%.
  • She sees rising AI adoption and tangible productivity gains.
  • Late-stage AI private valuations carry a large premium and need watching.
  • AI disappointment or capex overspend is the biggest identified market risk.
  • She expects 5-10% corrections and advises dry powder for opportunities.
  • Midterm affordability efforts could support the US consumer.
Ideas
Anastasia Amoroso iCapital 0:59
S&P 500 target 7700 on earnings
She forecasts the S&P 500 around 7,700, roughly a 9% return, based on stable multiples, Fed support for the labor market and economy, 12% earnings growth this year and 10% next year, AI/productivity-driven corporate margin expansion to 13.9%, and midterm affordability efforts that could shore up the consumer. She also expects normal 5-10% corrections but views them as buying opportunities and suggests keeping dry powder.
SPY HIGH
Anastasia Amoroso iCapital 1:57
Midterms may shore up US consumer
She expects midterm politics to focus on affordability and thinks a lot will be done to shore up the US consumer, which makes her positive on the consumer outlook.
US Consumer MED
Anastasia Amoroso iCapital 2:31
AI adoption positive, valuations need caution
She is constructive on the AI trade because adoption is rising, users are applying AI in more areas, and tangible productivity/cost savings are creating a virtuous cycle. Partners Group sees 20-40% productivity increases across portfolio companies, which accrues to the bottom line. However, she warns that AI valuations, especially late-stage private-market AI valuations, carry a huge premium and need watching.
AI-SECTOR HIGH
Anastasia Amoroso iCapital 4:52
Semiconductor demand at risk if AI disappoints
AI disappointment is the biggest identifiable risk for a down market year because so much capex is AI-related. If AI capex overspends or demand disappoints, there may be less need for semiconductors and data-center capacity, which would pressure semis.
SMH MED
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This CNBC video, published January 07, 2026, features Anastasia Amoroso discussing SPY, US Consumer, AI-SECTOR, SMH. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anastasia Amoroso  · Tickers: SPY, US Consumer, AI-SECTOR, SMH