Trump Ultimately Gets What He Wants. How Will the U.S. Stock Market Fare This Year? | Jang Jae-cheol, CEO of Pinnacle Economic Research Institute

트럼프는 결국 원하는 것을 얻는다. 미국 증시는 올해 어떨까? | 장재철 피나클경제연구소 대표 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 22, 2026 at 23:17  |  41:40  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Vincent — Host
Jang Jae-cheol — CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute

Summary

The video is a global interview with Jang Jae-cheol, CEO of Pinnacle Economic Research Institute, hosted on Wall Street Morning Briefing. The discussion covers the KOSPI 5,000 milestone, sticky US inflation, limited Fed rate cuts, US equity and cyclical rotation views, and Trump's tariff and China policy. It also examines rising Japanese government bond yields, yen-carry unwind risks, gold's geopolitical support, Korean won weakness, and Korea's structural competitiveness, especially in defense.

  • KOSPI briefly reached 5,000; Vincent called it a stopover, while Jang was more cautious about policy-driven gains but saw further upside.
  • Jang expects US inflation to stay sticky and Fed rate cuts to be limited, keeping long-term Treasury yields under upward pressure.
  • He sees stronger US fundamentals supporting equities and favoring cyclical rotation over growth leadership.
  • Japan's fiscal expansion and JGB oversupply are expected to keep Japanese yields high, with possible spillover to global bonds and volatility.
  • Jang admitted his prior limited-upside gold call was wrong because geopolitical risks persisted.
  • He sees structural won weakness driven by financial-account outflows and calls overseas diversification desirable due to long-term US equity returns.
  • Korea's industrial resilience was highlighted, with defense exports as a notable competitive example.
Ideas
Vincent Host 0:51
KOSPI 5,000 is a stopover.
KOSPI reached 5,000 and Vincent argues it is not the final destination but a stopover. He sees Trump-related geopolitical risk easing in the near term, calls the environment a detente, and frames the crisis as an opportunity, expecting Korean equities to continue rising.
EWY MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 5:26
Sticky inflation keeps rate cuts limited.
Jang takes a hawkish view: October and November CPI showed inflation remains sticky, with year-over-year inflation rising to 2.8% versus the Fed's 2% target. As labor-market focus fades and tariff effects pass through, rate-cut constraints increase; if Trump pressures the Fed, inflation and long-term yields rise. He thinks even one cut may be enough, implying bearish long-duration US Treasuries.
TLT HIGH
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 7:12
US fundamentals support equities despite inflation.
Over the past decade, the S&P 500 averaged about 11% annual returns while Korean equities returned less than half. Korean investors have developed a habit of allocating abroad, and Jang views overseas diversification as a desirable long-term portfolio direction.
SPY MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 7:43
Stronger economy favors cyclical rotation.
If sticky inflation keeps rates high but the US economy improves, growth-led market leadership may face pressure while cyclical sectors and rotation strategies benefit from stronger activity.
US cyclicals MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 25:46
Japan fiscal expansion lifts JGB yields.
Japan's rates have finally repriced and are rising fast. BOJ rate hikes have limited impact because they are infrequent, but large fiscal easing, supplementary budgets, and planned tax cuts create excess JGB supply. Fiscal deterioration, not BOJ policy, should keep Japanese government bond yields high and prices weak.
Japanese government bonds HIGH
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 29:08
Yen carry unwind pressures global bonds.
Rising Japanese yields and a stronger BOJ exit risk trigger yen-carry-trade unwinds. Japanese investors could sell foreign bonds, pushing global government bond yields higher and increasing market volatility.
Global government bonds MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 30:02
Geopolitical risk supports gold.
Jang admits his prior call for limited gold upside was wrong. He attributes the error to excluding persistent geopolitical risks such as Venezuela, Greenland, Russia-Ukraine, and the Middle East; those risks keep gold's upside case alive.
GLD LOW
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 32:00
Won weakness persists on structural outflows.
DXY is near fair value, so dollar strength is not the main driver. The won is weak because Korea's FX supply and demand now includes large financial-account outflows, not just the current account. The government cannot easily control these flows; unless domestic expected returns improve, USD/KRW faces upward pressure.
USD/KRW MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 37:47
KOSPI has further upside.
Jang says KOSPI's 5,000 is partly a K-shaped market led by semiconductors, autos, and defense and partly policy-driven, so he is cautious about the level. Still, improving economic fundamentals suggest further upside for the KOSPI.
EWY MED
Jang Jae-cheol CEO, Pinnacle Economic Research Institute 39:06
Korean defense has structural competitiveness.
Korea has retained a broad industrial base from light to heavy industry and never abandoned major export sectors. Defense is the clearest example: Korean suppliers can deliver tanks to Poland in about three months versus Germany's eight years, demonstrating a deep internal supply chain and structural competitiveness.
Korean defense sector MED
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 22, 2026, features Vincent, Jang Jae-cheol discussing EWY, TLT, SPY, US cyclicals, Japanese government bonds, Global government bonds, GLD, USD/KRW, Korean defense sector. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Vincent, Jang Jae-cheol  · Tickers: EWY, TLT, SPY, US cyclicals, Japanese government bonds, Global government bonds, GLD, USD/KRW, Korean defense sector