The Iranian regime fears its people more than the bombs or sanctions, says Richard Goldberg

Summary

Richard Goldberg discusses the Iranian regime's internal fragility due to economic collapse, a blockade, and popular unrest, while the US maintains strategic patience. He argues the regime fears its own people more than bombs or sanctions, and that a quiet, undeclared version of Project Freedom is bringing limited oil to market. The US is not afraid of a supply shock due to increased production from multiple sources and reduced Chinese demand.

• Richard Goldberg assesses the Iranian regime is under severe economic pressure from the blockade and internal unrest.
• He describes two factions within Iran: one seeking a deal, another hoping to outlast President Trump midterm politics.
• A quiet, undeclared version of Project Freedom is slowly bringing oil to market with US guidance.
• Additional oil supply from Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, Venezuela, and reduced Chinese demand makes the US less fearful of a supply shock.
• The regime fears attacks on critical infrastructure like refineries and power plants, but the US is not initiating escalation.
• Goldberg notes the Strait of Hormuz closure is strangling Iran's economy and causing hyperinflation and gasoline shortages.
• He suggests the president's strategic patience and the regime's internal pain may lead to a resolution without major military escalation.