Why an AI Driven Unemployment Wave is Real Estate’s Biggest Risk | Tom Shapiro

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 26, 2026 at 16:01  |  1:00:17  |  Monetary Matters
Speakers
Tom Shapiro — President, Founder & CIO, GTIS Partners

Summary

Tom Shapiro discusses how AI disruption, oversupply in Sun Belt, and reshoring are reshaping real estate. He is bullish on San Francisco apartments and industrial logistics, while avoiding Sun Belt apartments. He also highlights opportunities in Brazil real estate. The macro environment, including inflation and immigration, remains a key risk.

  • AI-driven job displacement is a major concern for real estate demand across asset classes.
  • San Francisco is seeing a strong recovery led by AI company occupancy and a new mayor.
  • Sun Belt apartment markets are heavily oversupplied with concessions lasting longer than expected.
  • GTIS is actively buying San Francisco apartments at steep discounts to replacement cost.
  • Industrial/logistics real estate is benefiting from reshoring and limited new supply.
  • Brazil real estate offers attractive yields, especially in São Paulo office and industrial.
  • High interest rates and currency volatility are challenges in Brazil.
  • The housing bill's built-to-rent conversion requirement is creating uncertainty for investors.
Trade Ideas
Tom Shapiro President, Founder & CIO, GTIS Partners 17:12
Sun Belt apartments are oversupplied and avoid.
Sun Belt markets like Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, and Phoenix are suffering from severe oversupply of apartments, with concessions such as 3-4 months free rent. The oversupply is taking longer to clear than expected (over 2.5 years in Phoenix), and employment growth is not absorbing units quickly. These markets are unattractive for new investment.
Sun Belt apartments HIGH
Tom Shapiro President, Founder & CIO, GTIS Partners 19:57
San Francisco apartments are a strong buy.
San Francisco is experiencing a strong recovery driven by AI companies occupying office space, a new mayor improving safety and cleanliness, and rents rising over 10% year-over-year. GTIS is buying apartment buildings at 50% off replacement cost, focusing on units with high turnover to capture market rents. The virtuous cycle of job growth, population return, and limited new supply makes San Francisco apartments a compelling investment.
San Francisco apartments HIGH
Tom Shapiro President, Founder & CIO, GTIS Partners 40:12
US industrial/logistics real estate is bullish.
US industrial and logistics real estate is benefiting from reshoring, near-shoring, and the need for warehouse space near new factories. New supply starts are down 50%, while demand remains solid from just-in-time inventory needs and data center supply chains. GTIS is actively developing warehouses in the Carolinas and Texas, with strong leasing activity.
INDS HIGH
Tom Shapiro President, Founder & CIO, GTIS Partners 49:08
Brazil real estate is attractive long-term.
Brazil's real estate market offers attractive opportunities, particularly in São Paulo office and industrial sectors. The country benefits from commodity exports, a recovering currency, and high-quality buildings in strong demand from multinational tenants. GTIS has built top-tier office towers and is developing a large spec office building pre-leased to a major tenant. The high interest rate environment is a headwind but cash buyers are active.
Brazil real estate MED
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This Monetary Matters video, published May 26, 2026, features Tom Shapiro discussing Sun Belt apartments, San Francisco apartments, INDS, Brazil real estate. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tom Shapiro  · Tickers: Sun Belt apartments, San Francisco apartments, INDS, Brazil real estate