Inside the US-India Trade Deal

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 03, 2026 at 14:20  |  14:12  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
V. Anantha Nageswaran — Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India

Summary

V. Anantha Nageswaran, India's Chief Economic Advisor, discusses the US-India trade deal and its positive implications for India's growth, markets, rupee, and capital flows. He says growth could be close to 7.4% in the fiscal year beginning April 1 and highlights budget measures to support manufacturing, services, electronics, pharma, chemicals, tourism, and infrastructure. He also discusses fiscal consolidation, job creation, oil prices, and the main risks for India in 2026.

  • US-India trade deal removes a major market-access overhang and could lift India growth toward 7.4%.
  • Indian capital markets and the rupee react positively, with capital flows possibly returning.
  • Budget supports electronics, pharma, chemicals, tourism/hospitality, manufacturing, software/services, and infrastructure.
  • Fiscal consolidation is framed as keeping cost of capital stable without sacrificing expenditure quality.
  • Budget includes labor-code notification and MSME measures aimed at long-term job creation.
  • Oil prices around $60–70 and Brent's drop are noted as manageable for India.
  • Biggest India risks for 2026 are global geopolitics and a global financial-market meltdown.
Ideas
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 0:00
Trade deal boosts Indian equities and investment.
The US-India trade deal removes a major overhang for Indian markets by restoring access to the large US consumption market, reviving China-plus-one and global value-chain interest in India, lifting growth estimates toward 7.4%, and encouraging foreign portfolio capital to return to India's otherwise sound macro fundamentals.
Indian equities HIGH
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 0:00
Trade deal supports Indian rupee.
The trade agreement removes a key stumbling block for the Indian rupee by easing investor concerns about India being excluded from the US market and by supporting capital flows; the rupee had been pressured by portfolio outflows, and the macro backdrop and lower current-account deficit make the deal a timely positive.
Indian rupee HIGH
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 5:45
Government capex supports Indian infrastructure sector.
Fiscal discipline is not weakening expenditure quality: the government has committed substantial investment for the infrastructure industry on top of direct and indirect tax reliefs, supporting the infrastructure sector.
Indian infrastructure LOW
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 6:26
Budget measures benefit Indian electronics sector.
The budget and trade deal should benefit Indian electronics through customs-duty reductions on electronic components, tax-certainty measures for electronics/software global capability centres, and broader efforts to attract manufacturing FDI and lower input costs.
Indian electronics MED
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 6:26
Budget supports Indian pharma and chemicals.
The Chief Economic Advisor singles out pharma and chemicals as sectors that will definitely benefit from budget-related announcements and from the government's broader focus on lowering input costs and improving competitiveness.
EPI Indian chemicals MED
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 6:54
Tourism boost supports Indian hospitality sector.
The budget gave a significant boost to tourism, and the hospitality industry should therefore benefit from the budget proposals.
Indian hospitality MED
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 8:36
Budget and trade deal boost Indian manufacturing.
The budget makes a firm down payment on shifting supply chains by boosting manufacturing, cutting customs duties on intermediate and primary products, and attracting FDI, while the US trade deal adds further upside to India's manufacturing prospects.
Indian manufacturing HIGH
V. Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 8:54
Tax certainty boosts Indian software and services.
The budget removes tax uncertainty for the software sector and global capability centres through higher safe-harbour limits and advance pricing agreements, and it aims to attract FDI into services, improving prospects for Indian software and services.
Indian software Indian services MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 03, 2026, features V. Anantha Nageswaran discussing Indian equities, Indian rupee, Indian infrastructure, Indian electronics, EPI, Indian chemicals, Indian hospitality, Indian manufacturing, Indian software, Indian services. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: V. Anantha Nageswaran  · Tickers: Indian equities, Indian rupee, Indian infrastructure, Indian electronics, EPI, Indian chemicals, Indian hospitality, Indian manufacturing, Indian software, Indian services