Iran's Missile Survival Strategy: Why the US Cannot Finish Iran / Overcoming the Limits of Bunker Busters: Why Hyunmoo-5 is a Game Changer for Underground Strikes | Professor Jin Jae-il

Summary

Professor Jin Jae-il analyzes Iran's missile-centric survival strategy, explains why the US cannot effectively blockade the Strait of Hormuz or commit ground forces, and highlights the Hyunmoo-5 missile as a game-changing bunker buster that gives South Korea significant deterrence against North Korea's underground facilities.

• Iran has built a survival-focused military centered on missiles and deeply buried underground production facilities.
• The US lacks the naval presence and regional bases to enforce a Hormuz blockade; around only 5% interception is feasible.
• US ground invasion would result in a Vietnam 2.0 scenario with enormous cost, and Trump is aware of the risks.
• Iran demonstrated precision missile strikes on Gulf military bases and the UAE financial center, reshaping regional threat perceptions.
• South Korea's Hyunmoo-5 offers 1-2m accuracy, massive penetration, and shockwave destruction, capable of hitting deep North Korean bunkers.
• The conflict is eroding US alliance credibility, pushing allies like South Korea and Japan to consider reducing dependence on the US.
• European energy strain may force Europe to capitulate, which would likely compel Trump to withdraw.