End of semiconductor dominance? Perfect guide to KOSDAQ stock-specific market conditions that will overturn expected returns in the second half | Lee Jae-gyu, SK Securities PB Assistant Manager

Summary

Lee Jae-gyu, PB Assistant Manager at SK Securities, argues that the sharp sell-off in semiconductors is overdone and that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remain buys on dips, though H2 upside may be slower. He presents extensive data showing KOSDAQ is historically oversold versus KOSPI and is beginning to converge, making the case for KOSDAQ outperformance in the second half. Within KOSDAQ, he highlights an opportunity in Korean biotech/pharma stocks as they catch up to the rally in US biotech.

• Semiconductors (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) have corrected 30% but fundamentals and low valuations support further upside; negative reports at oversold levels carry less weight.
• DRAM/HBM supply bottlenecks and continued demand growth, alongside a historically oversold Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, underpin the semiconductor thesis, though explosive gains are unlikely.
• KOSDAQ is deeply underperforming KOSPI (51% divergence over 60 days) but recent 10-day data shows early convergence, with credit balances already cleaned up.
• The KOSDAQ monthly chart shows the index testing its 120-month moving average, a rare support level that has historically led to rebounds.
• US biotech ETF (XBI) is rallying strongly while Korean biotech stocks (Celltrion, D&D Pharmatech, Hanall Biopharma, OliX) have decoupled; normalization could drive catch-up.
• The speaker reduced shipbuilding exposure to raise cash for pharma/bio or semiconductors, adjusting portfolio positioning for the expected H2 rotation.
• Investors are advised to remain objective, data-driven, and not to abandon the market, but to shift focus from heavy semiconductor concentration to KOSDAQ opportunities.