Business Leaders Weigh In On US Economy, Outlook for US Credit Market | Real Yield 1/23/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 23, 2026 at 18:46  |  22:24  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ken Griffin — CEO, Citadel
Kathy Jones — Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab
Russ Brownback — BlackRock
Bill Winters — CEO, Standard Chartered
Steven Oh — Co-Head of Leveraged Finance, PineBridge Investments
Will Smith — Head of Credit, AllianceBernstein
Scarlet Fu — Anchor, Bloomberg Television

Summary

Bloomberg Real Yield hosts a macro roundtable with Kathy Jones and Russ Brownback on U.S. Treasuries, Japanese bond volatility, and Fed policy, followed by a credit roundtable with Steven Oh and Will Smith. Guests debate whether foreign demand for U.S. assets is fading, with Jones warning of a gradual rise in long-term yields and term premium while Brownback sees a bull steepener. In credit, tight spreads and supportive fundamentals favor yield clipping, with CCC bonds and U.S. investment-grade credit singled out as relatively attractive. The episode also highlights private credit leverage risks and upcoming Fed and earnings events.

  • U.S. 10-year yield broke higher as Japanese government bonds sold off.
  • Kathy Jones sees a gradual rise in long-term Treasury yields and term premium.
  • Russ Brownback expects Fed cuts to drive a bull steepener.
  • Steven Oh and Will Smith say credit fundamentals remain supportive but spreads are tight.
  • Will Smith favors CCC high-yield and U.S. investment-grade credit.
  • Steven Oh sees a Japanese demand headwind for U.S. fixed income.
  • Ken Griffin warns fiscal inaction could raise Treasury yields.
  • Standard Chartered CEO warns on private credit leverage.
Ideas
Ken Griffin CEO, Citadel 2:26
Treasuries face fiscal warning
Japan's bond selloff is an exquisite warning that if the U.S. fiscal house is not put in order, bond vigilantes can demand higher yields. If U.S. Treasuries are viewed as at risk, the market will require a much higher yield.
TLT HIGH
Kathy Jones Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab 7:13
Japanese government bonds look attractive
Hedged Japanese government bonds now offer higher returns than hedged U.S. Treasuries, creating a risk that Japanese investors gradually repatriate capital. This supports JGBs and reduces marginal demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Japanese government bonds MED
Kathy Jones Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab 7:45
Long-term Treasury yields set to rise
Fiscal deficits, lack of confidence in U.S. policy, persistent inflation risk, and potential reduced foreign demand should lead to a gradual rise in long-term Treasury yields and an expanding term premium. She does not expect wholesale selling or a disaster, but sees the market demanding higher yields to offset these risks.
long-term U.S. Treasuries HIGH
Russ Brownback BlackRock 8:10
Expect bull steepening in Treasuries
A productivity revolution and strong growth should allow the Fed to deliver more rate cuts, pushing front-end yields lower and producing a bull steepener. He does not expect a huge move, but sees front-end yields and the curve moving downward.
U.S. Treasury curve steepener SHY HIGH
Kathy Jones Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab 9:35
Expect U.S. Treasury bear steepener
Sticky inflation, fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill, and an economy running hot mean the Fed has less room to cut than markets anticipate, so she expects a bear steepener rather than a bull steepener.
U.S. Treasury bear steepener HIGH
Russ Brownback BlackRock 10:49
Harvest income in high-quality fixed income
With policy rates likely on hold near term and fixed income yields still generationally high, investors should harvest income rather than make a large directional bet on rates.
High-quality fixed income HIGH
Kathy Jones Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab 11:37
Favor intermediate-term high-quality bonds
She advocates an intermediate-term, high-quality fixed income portfolio to clip the coupon and earn an income stream with only modest capital appreciation potential, avoiding excessive duration and credit risk while first-quarter volatility plays out.
IGIB HIGH
Bill Winters CEO, Standard Chartered 13:39
Private credit leverage poses risk
Capital has shifted from banks to nonbanks, and private credit buyers are overleveraged; if credit losses appear, the credit cycle could be amplified. He says the system currently looks safer and sounder, so this is a risk to monitor rather than a present crisis.
BIZD MED
Steven Oh Co-Head of Leveraged Finance, PineBridge Investments 15:09
U.S. corporate credit offers yield
Corporate fundamentals, earnings, and balance sheets are supportive, and corporate credit can withstand government bond volatility. With valuations tight, the environment is more about yield clipping than spread compression, though idiosyncratic and secular issues create pockets of stress.
U.S. corporate credit HIGH
Will Smith Head of Credit, AllianceBernstein 16:32
CCC high-yield bonds poised to rally
CCC-rated bonds and the lowest-quality high-yield credit trade cheap to the rest of the credit market and are underowned, offering room to rally if there is no material growth slowdown or credit shock. Defaults are a timing risk, but in most of the cycle they should not eat into the income earned.
XCCC HIGH
Will Smith Head of Credit, AllianceBernstein 20:02
U.S. investment-grade credit looks better
Compression in non-investment-grade and agency spreads versus U.S. investment-grade makes U.S. investment-grade credit look relatively better, especially if Japanese demand slows.
LQD HIGH
Steven Oh Co-Head of Leveraged Finance, PineBridge Investments 20:22
U.S. fixed income faces demand headwind
Hedged JGB yields now offer better local returns, so incremental Japanese capital is more likely to be steered toward local markets rather than U.S. fixed income, creating a demand headwind even if existing U.S. assets are not sold.
U.S. Fixed Income MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 23, 2026, features Ken Griffin, Kathy Jones, Russ Brownback, Bill Winters, Steven Oh, Will Smith discussing TLT, Japanese government bonds, long-term U.S. Treasuries, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, SHY, U.S. Treasury bear steepener, High-quality fixed income, IGIB, BIZD, U.S. corporate credit, XCCC, LQD, U.S. Fixed Income. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ken Griffin, Kathy Jones, Russ Brownback, Bill Winters, Steven Oh, Will Smith  · Tickers: TLT, Japanese government bonds, long-term U.S. Treasuries, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, SHY, U.S. Treasury bear steepener, High-quality fixed income, IGIB, BIZD, U.S. corporate credit, XCCC, LQD, U.S. Fixed Income