Betting Tens of Billions of Dollars on the World Cup Final: The Growing Prediction Market, Hyperliquid Opens Its Doors Wide

Summary

Choi Yun-young analyzes two crypto themes: Circle's revenue headwinds from USDC distribution deals and the upcoming Coinbase renegotiation, and Hyperliquid's HIP4 upgrade opening permissionless prediction markets. She is cautious on Circle stock pending the August catalyst but strongly bullish on the HYPE token driven by prediction market growth and staking demand.

• Circle's main income from USDC reserve interest is being squeezed as platforms like Hyperliquid and Coinbase grab a bigger share of yield.
• The recent Hyperliquid-Coinbase deal gave 90% of reserve yield to Hyperliquid, setting a precedent that could repeat.
• The August renegotiation between Circle and Coinbase is a key catalyst that will determine Circle's margin trajectory.
• Hyperliquid's HIP4 upgrade enables anyone to launch a prediction market by staking HYPE, removing gatekeepers.
• If prediction markets expand, staking demand for HYPE will soar, tightening supply and boosting the token price.
• Hyperliquid's shared liquidity engine and token buybacks further strengthen the bullish case for HYPE.
• Existing prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi face new competition from permissionless entrants.